2026 March Madness Predictions: 50,000 Simulations Reveal Who Wins the NCAA Tournament
Our Monte Carlo engine ran the entire 68-team bracket 50,000 times. Here are the championship odds, upset alerts, and data-driven bracket insights you need before you lock in your picks.
How We Simulated 50,000 NCAA Tournaments
At Versus Sports Simulator, we don't deal in gut feelings. Our Monte Carlo simulation engine played out the entire 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 50,000 times, using composite power ratings that incorporate offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, strength of schedule, and pace-adjusted scoring margins. Each simulation randomizes game-by-game outcomes weighted by these ratings, producing a robust probability distribution for every team's chances of advancing to each round—from the Round of 64 all the way to cutting down the nets.
We also maintain our own Versus Performance Rankings—a proprietary ordinal ranking system that evaluates every Division I team across multiple dimensions of performance. You'll see these referenced throughout this article (e.g., "Versus #3 Michigan") alongside our power, offensive, and defensive component ratings. These rank every team across all of Division I basketball and often diverge sharply from a team's tournament seed. Those gaps are where the most valuable bracket insights hide.
The result? A comprehensive, data-driven look at which teams are most likely to make deep runs, which seeds are overvalued, and where the upsets are lurking. Let's dive in.
2026 NCAA Tournament Championship Odds: Complete Tier List
Not all 1-seeds are created equal—and the simulation makes that crystal clear. Below is every contender's probability of cutting down the nets in Indianapolis, organized into tiers.
🥇 Tier 1: The Clear Favorites
🥈 Tier 2: Legitimate Title Threats
South 1-seed
Midwest 2-seed
South 2-seed
West 2-seed
🥉 Tier 3: Dark Horse Contenders
The headline: Michigan is the simulation's clear favorite at 14.7%. The Wolverines own the No. 1 power ranking across all of Division I, the No. 3 offensive rating, and the 2nd-toughest strength of schedule among all 68 tournament teams. Meanwhile, Duke is right on their heels at 13.3%, currently riding an 11-game winning streak and what may be the country's most suffocating defense (ranked No. 2 in all of D-I, allowing just 63.1 PPG). Arizona rounds out the top tier at 12.5%—they own the nation's best Versus Performance Ranking (#1), an elite 10-2 record against Top 25 opponents (83.3%), and posted a dominant 23-game winning streak earlier this season.
Interactive Visualization: Every Team's Path to the Championship
Explore the full simulation results below. Each bar represents a team's probability of reaching every round of the tournament, from the Round of 64 through winning the national championship. Hover or tap on any team to see their complete probability breakdown.
2026 NCAA Tournament Top Contenders: In-Depth Analysis
Michigan Wolverines (31-3) — 14.7% to Win It All Midwest 1-Seed
Why the model loves them: Michigan holds the No. 1 power ranking across all of Division I, the No. 3 offensive rating (86.8 PPG), and the 2nd-toughest schedule among tournament teams. They're 8-3 against Top 25 opponents and 20-3 against teams above .500. At one point this season they rattled off a dominant 14-game winning streak.
Versus Performance Ranking: #3 overall in D-I—their elite power rating and offensive firepower push them to the top of the simulation despite ranking behind Arizona and Duke in our overall performance metric.
Key concern: Michigan enters the tournament having lost their last game (currently on a 1-game losing streak). Defense ranks 14th in D-I—very good, but not elite by the standards of the other top contenders.
Simulation path: 78.8% to the Sweet 16 • 58.5% to the Elite Eight • 39.1% to the Final Four • 23.9% to the Championship Game.
Duke Blue Devils (32-2) — 13.3% to Win It All East 1-Seed
Why the model loves them: Duke shares the nation's best record at 32-2 and possesses the No. 2 defensive rating across all of D-I, allowing a miserly 63.1 points per game—the stingiest mark among all 68 tournament teams. They enter the Big Dance on an 11-game winning streak and are 8-2 against Top 25 competition. Their best win? A victory over No. 1 power-ranked Michigan. Duke also played the 9th-toughest schedule among tournament teams.
Versus Performance Ranking: #2 in D-I—a team whose defensive ceiling gives them an edge in the grind-it-out games that define the second weekend of March.
Key concern: Offense ranks just 28th in D-I. In a shootout against a team like Arkansas or Alabama, Duke could struggle to keep pace.
Simulation path: 78.6% to the Sweet 16 • 57.1% to the Elite Eight • 37.9% to the Final Four • 23.2% to the Championship Game.
Arizona Wildcats (32-2) — 12.5% to Win It All West 1-Seed
Why the model loves them: Arizona sits atop our Versus Performance Rankings at #1 in all of Division I and matches Duke with a 32-2 record. They posted a staggering 23-game winning streak earlier this season—the longest by any D-I team—and went 10-2 against Top 25 teams (83.3%), the best mark in the tournament field. Their No. 5 offensive rating and No. 13 defensive rating make them one of the most balanced teams in the bracket, and they enter on a current 9-game winning streak. Arizona also played the 6th-toughest schedule among tournament teams.
Key concern: Despite being our #1 ranked team, the simulation gives them only the third-best championship odds. Why? The West Region is a gauntlet. Purdue (2-seed), Gonzaga (3-seed), Arkansas (4-seed), and Wisconsin (5-seed) all lurk in their path. Arizona's 36.7% Final Four probability is the lowest among all four 1-seeds.
Simulation path: 79.2% to the Sweet 16 • 57.7% to the Elite Eight • 36.7% to the Final Four • 21.3% to the Championship Game.
Florida Gators (26-7) — 8.7% to Win It All South 1-Seed
Why the model loves them: Florida holds the No. 4 power ranking in D-I despite a comparatively modest 26-7 record for a 1-seed. They play the 13th-toughest schedule among tournament teams through the gauntlet SEC, score 86.8 PPG (No. 9 offensive rating), and posted a 12-game winning streak earlier in the season that showed they can sustain dominance over a long stretch.
Versus Performance Ranking: #7 in D-I—that gap between their tournament seed (1) and their Versus ranking hints at a team that benefits from favorable seeding, but whose seven losses give the model pause.
Key concern: Seven losses are the most of any 1-seed, and they enter the tournament having lost their most recent game. Their defense ranks 20th in D-I—solid but not shutdown-level. The South Region pairs them with 2-seed Houston (the nation's best defense), 3-seed Illinois (Power Rank No. 7), and 4-seed Nebraska.
Simulation path: 75.6% to the Sweet 16 • 51.1% to the Elite Eight • 29.4% to the Final Four • 16.5% to the Championship Game.
2026 NCAA Tournament Region-by-Region Preview
East Region — Duke's Path Through a Deep Field
1-seed: Duke • Key contenders: UConn (2), Michigan State (3), Kansas (4), St. John's (5), Louisville (6)
Duke has the East's clearest path through the first weekend, but this region is deep. UConn (3.3% title odds, Versus #5) posted an 18-game winning streak earlier this season and brings the No. 3 defensive rating in the country. Michigan State (Power Rank No. 10, Versus #12) is a tough 3-seed for anyone, having played the 10th-toughest schedule among tournament teams. Kansas (4-seed) played the single toughest schedule of any tournament team and beat Versus #1 Arizona this season.
Louisville is one of the most underseeded teams in the entire field—a 6-seed with the No. 11 power ranking in D-I. The simulation puts them in the Elite Eight in 19.0% of outcomes and in the Final Four 7.6% of the time—numbers that rival some 3- and 4-seeds.
West Region — The Region of Death
1-seed: Arizona • Key contenders: Purdue (2), Gonzaga (3), Arkansas (4), Wisconsin (5), BYU (6)
This is the tournament's most stacked region, and the numbers prove it. Purdue (5.1% title odds, Power Rank No. 8) is a legitimate Final Four contender stuck on the 2-line. They played the 3rd-toughest schedule among tournament teams, currently ride a 4-game winning streak, and beat #1 power-ranked Michigan this season. Gonzaga (30-3, Versus #9) is a terrifying 3-seed who ripped off a 15-game winning streak earlier this season and went 16-2 against above-.500 opponents. Arkansas brings the tournament's No. 2 ranked offense at a scorching 89.9 PPG and enters on a 5-game winning streak.
Arizona's 36.7% Final Four probability is the lowest among all four 1-seeds, confirming this region's brutality. Even the 5- and 6-seeds are battle-tested: Wisconsin beat Versus #3 Michigan this season, and BYU knocked off Versus #10 Iowa State while playing the 5th-toughest schedule among tournament teams.
Midwest Region — Michigan's Bracket to Lose
1-seed: Michigan • Key contenders: Iowa State (2), Virginia (3), Alabama (4), Texas Tech (5), Tennessee (6)
The simulation's overall favorite, Michigan, has a path that looks favorable on paper but contains dangerous landmines. Iowa State is the field's sneakiest 2-seed: they carry the No. 5 power ranking in D-I, the No. 4 defensive rating, posted a 16-game winning streak during the regular season, and reached the championship game in 11.9% of simulations. Alabama (4-seed) leads the entire nation in scoring at 91.7 PPG (No. 1 offensive rating), but their No. 158-ranked defense is a massive liability—the worst defensive rating of any team seeded 4th or higher.
Virginia (3-seed, 29-5) is an enigma: Versus #6 overall with a 77.3% record against above-.500 teams, but 0-3 against Top 25 opponents. Their best win came against Versus #26 Louisville. That's a critical red flag for a team that will face elite competition no later than the Sweet 16. They also enter the tournament having lost their last game.
South Region — Florida's Gauntlet
1-seed: Florida • Key contenders: Houston (2), Illinois (3), Nebraska (4), Vanderbilt (5), North Carolina (6)
Houston is the ultimate defensive juggernaut: the No. 1 defensive rating across all of D-I, allowing just 62.9 PPG. But their No. 64 offensive ranking is a significant red flag that explains why a 2-seed "only" wins the title in 6.0% of simulations. Illinois (3-seed, Versus #16) is a powerhouse hiding in plain sight—their No. 7 power ranking makes them the highest-rated 3-seed by a wide margin, and their 5.0% championship probability is higher than any other 3-seed in the field. Illinois also posted a 12-game winning streak earlier this season.
Nebraska (4-seed) produced one of the most remarkable streaks of the entire season: a 20-game winning streak at their peak. They enter on a 1-game losing streak, but the underlying quality is real (81.3% win rate, No. 8 defensive rating). Vanderbilt (5-seed, Power Rank 12) is a legitimate sleeper with an 8.1% Final Four probability—they posted a 16-game winning streak during the regular season and beat 1-seed Florida this year in the SEC Tournament.
2026 March Madness Value Picks & Bracket Busters
The gap between a team's tournament seed and their power ranking is where bracket gold is found. These are the teams our model says are significantly better than their seed suggests—meaning the public will underrate them in bracket pools:
| Team | Seed | Versus Rank | Power Rank | Final Four % | Title % | Why They're Undervalued |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 2 (Midwest) | #10 | 5 | 22.2% | 6.5% | Power Rank 5 on a 2-line; No. 4 defense; 16-game win streak this season |
| Illinois | 3 (South) | #16 | 7 | 20.0% | 5.0% | Highest power-ranked 3-seed; beat Purdue; 12-game win streak this season |
| Louisville | 6 (East) | #26 | 11 | 7.6% | 1.3% | Power Rank 11 on a 6-line; 84.8 PPG; 19.0% Elite Eight probability |
| Vanderbilt | 5 (South) | #18 | 12 | 8.1% | 1.4% | Power Rank 12 as a 5-seed; beat Florida; 16-game win streak this season |
| Tennessee | 6 (Midwest) | #29 | 17 | 5.2% | 0.8% | Power Rank 17 on a 6-line; No. 6 defense in D-I; beat #4 Houston |
| Alabama | 4 (Midwest) | #17 | 14 | 9.8% | 1.8% | No. 1 offense in America (91.7 PPG); high ceiling if shots fall |
| Georgia | 8 (Midwest) | #40 | 25 | 1.8% | 0.2% | No. 4 offense in D-I (89.8 PPG); Power Rank 25 as an 8-seed |
The biggest value pick in the tournament? Louisville. Seeded as a 6-seed in the East, they carry the No. 11 power ranking in all of D-I—higher than several 2- and 3-seeds in this tournament. They score 84.8 PPG (No. 11 offensive rating), went 12-0 against sub-.500 teams, and the simulation puts them in the Elite Eight 19.0% of the time. In your bracket pool, far fewer people will pick Louisville for a deep run than the data supports. Their 0-5 record against Top 25 opponents is a legitimate concern, however.
Illinois is another glaring mismatch. Seeded as a 3 in the South but ranked 7th in power across all of D-I, the Illini made the Final Four in 1 out of every 5 simulations (20.0%) and won the championship 5.0% of the time—higher odds than any other non-1 or non-2 seed in the entire field.
2026 Cinderella Watch: Best Mid-Major & Low-Seed Upset Picks
Every year, at least one double-digit seed busts brackets wide open. Our 50,000 simulations identified these low seeds with the best chances of pulling first-round upsets:
| Team | Seed | Record | Current Streak | Rd of 32 % | Sweet 16 % | Why They're Dangerous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 11 (South) | 27-7 | W 6 | 37.8% | 8.7% | A-10 champs; 68.2% vs. above-.500; facing UNC on a 2-game skid |
| South Florida | 11 (East) | 24-8 | W 11 | 33.0% | 8.9% | No. 19 offense (87.0 PPG); currently on an 11-game winning streak |
| McNeese State | 12 (South) | 26-5 | W 10 | 28.2% | 6.5% | Southland champs; currently on a 10-game winning streak; 83.9% win rate |
| Akron | 12 (Midwest) | 27-5 | W 10 | 28.1% | 6.7% | MAC champs; currently on a 10-game winning streak; 86.9 PPG |
| High Point | 12 (West) | 27-4 | W 14 | 28.0% | 6.8% | Currently on a 14-game winning streak; 87.1% win rate; 86.5 PPG |
| Northern Iowa | 12 (East) | 22-12 | W 5 | 27.3% | 6.8% | No. 9 defensive rating across all of D-I (62.1 PPG allowed) |
The best Cinderella pick? VCU. The 11-seed Rams have a 37.8% chance of beating 6-seed North Carolina in the South Region—the highest first-round upset probability for any double-digit seed. VCU is 27-7 with a current 6-game winning streak and a 68.2% record against above-.500 teams. Meanwhile, North Carolina enters on a 2-game losing streak. As an 11-seed, VCU will be underowned in most bracket pools, giving you valuable differentiation if they deliver.
For 12-over-5 upsets, all four 12-seeds have Round of 32 probabilities clustered between 27.3% and 28.2%—meaning the model expects at least one (and possibly two) 12-seed upsets. High Point vs. Wisconsin is particularly appealing: the Panthers are currently riding a 14-game winning streak with a 27-4 record and 86.5 PPG scoring punch. Northern Iowa brings an elite defense (No. 9 in D-I, allowing just 62.1 PPG) that could throttle 5-seed St. John's pace.
Offense vs. Defense: Which Style Wins March Madness in 2026?
One of the most fascinating findings from the simulation data is the tension between offensive firepower and defensive dominance. Here are the extremes among tournament teams:
- Houston (Def #1, 62.9 PA)Off #64 ⚠️
- Duke (Def #2, 63.1 PA)Off #28
- UConn (Def #3, 65.1 PA)Off #62
- Iowa State (Def #4, 65.1 PA)Off #30
- Tennessee (Def #6, 69.4 PA)Off #61
The verdict: Balance wins. The three teams with the best championship odds—Michigan (Off #3 / Def #14), Duke (Off #28 / Def #2), and Arizona (Off #5 / Def #13)—all rank in the top 15 in at least one category and top 30 in the other. One-dimensional teams flame out:
- Alabama scores the most points in the nation (91.7 PPG) but allows 83.5—a net margin of just +8.2. That No. 158 defensive rating is a recipe for high-variance, upset-prone outcomes. They win the title only 1.8% of the time despite being a 4-seed with the nation's most explosive offense.
- Houston is the mirror image: the nation's No. 1 defense but a No. 64 offense. When they fall behind, they lack the scoring punch to rally, capping their title odds at 6.0% despite being a 2-seed. Houston is the tournament's most likely team to win a gritty 55-50 game—but that style has a lower ceiling in March.
- Michigan is the model for March success: No. 3 offense, No. 14 defense, No. 1 power rating. They can win games at any tempo, on any night. That versatility is why they sit atop the championship odds at 14.7%.
Full 2026 NCAA Tournament Team Data: Season Stats for All 68 Teams
The table below contains complete season data for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament field, including record, conference, strength of schedule ranking (among tournament teams), performance against Top 25 opponents, scoring averages, and current streaks. Data is current as of March 17, 2026. Click any column header to sort.
| Seed | Team | Conf | Region | Versus Rank | W | L | Win% | Top 25 Rec | Top 25 % | >.500 Rec | >.500 % | PPG | Opp PPG | Best Win | Worst Loss | Current Streak | Best Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | Big 12 | West | #1 | 32 | 2 | 94.1% | 10-2 | 83.3% | 24-2 | 92.3% | 86.1 | 68.8 | #4 Houston | #19 Texas Tech | W 9 | W 23 |
| 1 | Duke | ACC | East | #2 | 32 | 2 | 94.1% | 8-2 | 80.0% | 23-2 | 92.0% | 82.3 | 63.1 | #3 Michigan | #20 North Carolina | W 11 | W 11 |
| 1 | Michigan | Big 10 | Midwest | #3 | 31 | 3 | 91.2% | 8-3 | 72.7% | 20-3 | 87.0% | 86.8 | 69.2 | #8 Purdue | #21 Wisconsin | L 1 | W 14 |
| 1 | Florida | SEC | South | #7 | 26 | 7 | 78.8% | 3-4 | 42.9% | 17-7 | 70.8% | 86.8 | 72.0 | #15 Arkansas | #53 Missouri | L 1 | W 12 |
| 2 | Houston | Big 12 | South | #4 | 28 | 6 | 82.4% | 5-5 | 50.0% | 17-6 | 73.9% | 77.1 | 62.9 | #14 Kansas | #29 Tennessee | L 1 | W 11 |
| 2 | UConn | Big East | East | #5 | 29 | 5 | 85.3% | 7-3 | 70.0% | 15-3 | 83.3% | 77.5 | 65.1 | #7 Florida | #114 Marquette | L 1 | W 18 |
| 2 | Purdue | Big 10 | West | #8 | 27 | 8 | 77.1% | 6-5 | 54.5% | 14-8 | 63.6% | 81.7 | 70.1 | #3 Michigan | #59 Indiana | W 4 | W 9 |
| 2 | Iowa State | Big 12 | Midwest | #10 | 27 | 7 | 79.4% | 5-5 | 50.0% | 13-7 | 65.0% | 81.8 | 65.1 | #4 Houston | #57 Cincinnati | L 1 | W 16 |
| 3 | Virginia | ACC | Midwest | #6 | 29 | 5 | 85.3% | 0-3 | 0.0% | 17-5 | 77.3% | 80.6 | 68.4 | #26 Louisville | #85 Butler | L 1 | W 9 |
| 3 | Gonzaga | WCC | West | #9 | 30 | 3 | 90.9% | 2-2 | 50.0% | 16-2 | 88.9% | 85.1 | 66.0 | #17 Alabama | #171 Portland | W 2 | W 15 |
| 3 | Michigan State | Big 10 | East | #12 | 25 | 7 | 78.1% | 4-5 | 44.4% | 15-6 | 71.4% | 78.9 | 68.4 | #8 Purdue | #89 Minnesota | L 2 | W 8 |
| 3 | Illinois | Big 10 | South | #16 | 24 | 8 | 75.0% | 3-7 | 30.0% | 12-8 | 60.0% | 84.4 | 69.8 | #8 Purdue | #27 UCLA | L 1 | W 12 |
| 4 | Kansas | Big 12 | East | #14 | 23 | 10 | 69.7% | 5-6 | 45.5% | 15-10 | 60.0% | 75.6 | 69.4 | #1 Arizona | #62 West Virginia | L 1 | W 8 |
| 4 | Nebraska | Big 10 | South | #13 | 26 | 6 | 81.3% | 3-4 | 42.9% | 10-6 | 62.5% | 77.3 | 66.2 | #12 Michigan St | #41 Iowa | L 1 | W 20 |
| 4 | Arkansas | SEC | West | #15 | 26 | 8 | 76.5% | 3-5 | 37.5% | 17-8 | 68.0% | 89.9 | 80.1 | #18 Vanderbilt | #50 Auburn | W 5 | W 5 |
| 4 | Alabama | SEC | Midwest | #17 | 23 | 9 | 71.9% | 3-5 | 37.5% | 15-8 | 65.2% | 91.7 | 83.5 | #11 St John's | #93 Mississippi | L 1 | W 8 |
| 5 | St. John's | Big East | East | #11 | 28 | 6 | 82.4% | 4-3 | 57.1% | 15-5 | 75.0% | 81.6 | 70.0 | #5 Connecticut | #91 Providence | W 6 | W 13 |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | SEC | South | #18 | 26 | 8 | 76.5% | 3-3 | 50.0% | 16-8 | 66.7% | 86.4 | 75.2 | #7 Florida | #67 Texas | L 1 | W 16 |
| 5 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | Midwest | #19 | 22 | 10 | 68.8% | 5-7 | 41.7% | 16-10 | 61.5% | 80.4 | 72.6 | #1 Arizona | #51 Arizona St | L 3 | W 5 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | Big 10 | West | #21 | 24 | 10 | 70.6% | 5-5 | 50.0% | 9-9 | 50.0% | 83.0 | 75.9 | #3 Michigan | #102 Oregon | L 1 | W 5 |
| 6 | North Carolina | ACC | South | #20 | 24 | 8 | 75.0% | 3-2 | 60.0% | 13-8 | 61.9% | 79.8 | 71.3 | #2 Duke | #55 California | L 2 | W 7 |
| 6 | BYU | Big 12 | West | #22 | 23 | 11 | 67.6% | 4-7 | 36.4% | 13-11 | 54.2% | 83.9 | 75.3 | #10 Iowa St | #62 West Virginia | L 1 | W 13 |
| 6 | Tennessee | SEC | Midwest | #29 | 22 | 11 | 66.7% | 3-7 | 30.0% | 13-10 | 56.5% | 79.5 | 69.4 | #4 Houston | #90 Syracuse | L 1 | W 7 |
| 6 | Louisville | ACC | East | #26 | 23 | 10 | 69.7% | 0-5 | 0.0% | 11-10 | 52.4% | 84.8 | 72.2 | #28 Miami FL | #47 Stanford | L 1 | W 7 |
| 7 | Saint Mary's | WCC | South | #24 | 26 | 5 | 83.9% | 1-2 | 33.3% | 16-5 | 76.2% | 77.6 | 65.3 | #9 Gonzaga | #49 Boise St | L 1 | W 8 |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | ACC | West | #28 | 25 | 8 | 75.8% | 1-4 | 20.0% | 10-8 | 55.6% | 81.9 | 71.2 | #20 North Carolina | #60 Florida St | L 1 | W 10 |
| 7 | UCLA | Big 10 | East | #27 | 23 | 11 | 67.6% | 4-6 | 40.0% | 7-10 | 41.2% | 77.7 | 71.0 | #8 Purdue | #89 Minnesota | L 1 | W 4 |
| 7 | Kentucky | SEC | Midwest | #36 | 21 | 13 | 61.8% | 3-8 | 27.3% | 10-13 | 43.5% | 80.8 | 73.8 | #11 St John's | #53 Missouri | L 1 | W 5 |
| 8 | Villanova | Big East | West | #25 | 24 | 8 | 75.0% | 1-6 | 14.3% | 10-6 | 62.5% | 77.2 | 70.8 | #21 Wisconsin | #84 Georgetown | L 1 | W 7 |
| 8 | Ohio State | Big 10 | East | #32 | 21 | 12 | 63.6% | 2-9 | 18.2% | 8-10 | 44.4% | 79.8 | 72.8 | #8 Purdue | #108 Pittsburgh | L 1 | W 6 |
| 8 | Clemson | ACC | South | #30 | 24 | 10 | 70.6% | 1-5 | 16.7% | 13-9 | 59.1% | 74.1 | 66.7 | #20 North Carolina | #84 Georgetown | L 1 | W 9 |
| 8 | Georgia | SEC | Midwest | #40 | 22 | 10 | 68.8% | 2-3 | 40.0% | 10-8 | 55.6% | 89.8 | 79.2 | #15 Arkansas | #93 Mississippi | L 1 | W 7 |
| 9 | Utah State | MWC | West | #23 | 27 | 6 | 81.8% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 19-6 | 76.0% | 81.7 | 70.8 | #35 VCU | #95 UNLV | W 4 | W 8 |
| 9 | TCU | Big 12 | East | #31 | 22 | 11 | 66.7% | 4-6 | 40.0% | 11-8 | 57.9% | 78.3 | 72.1 | #7 Florida | #226 New Orleans | L 1 | W 6 |
| 9 | Iowa | Big 10 | South | #41 | 22 | 12 | 64.7% | 1-8 | 11.1% | 8-9 | 47.1% | 75.4 | 65.9 | #13 Nebraska | #130 Penn St | L 1 | W 7 |
| 9 | Saint Louis | A-10 | Midwest | #37 | 27 | 5 | 84.4% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 15-5 | 75.0% | 86.4 | 70.7 | #33 Santa Clara | #163 Rhode Island | L 1 | W 17 |
| 10 | UCF | Big 12 | East | #34 | 21 | 11 | 65.6% | 3-5 | 37.5% | 14-10 | 58.3% | 81.0 | 78.5 | #14 Kansas | #69 Baylor | L 1 | W 11 |
| 10 | Santa Clara | WCC | Midwest | #33 | 25 | 8 | 75.8% | 2-4 | 33.3% | 14-7 | 66.7% | 82.8 | 73.0 | #24 St Mary's CA | #242 Loyola-Chicago | L 1 | W 9 |
| 10 | Missouri | SEC | West | #53 | 20 | 12 | 62.5% | 2-5 | 28.6% | 10-9 | 52.6% | 79.7 | 75.3 | #7 Florida | #103 Notre Dame | L 3 | W 8 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | SEC | South | #44 | 21 | 11 | 65.6% | 0-4 | 0.0% | 8-11 | 42.1% | 87.7 | 79.6 | #36 Kentucky | #67 Texas | L 1 | W 6 |
| 11 | VCU | A-10 | South | #35 | 27 | 7 | 79.4% | 0-2 | 0.0% | 15-7 | 68.2% | 81.6 | 71.5 | #43 South Florida | #77 George Mason | W 6 | W 10 |
| 11 | NC State | ACC | West | #42 | 20 | 13 | 60.6% | 1-5 | 16.7% | 11-11 | 50.0% | 83.7 | 76.5 | #20 North Carolina | #170 Georgia Tech | L 1 | W 6 |
| 11 | South Florida | AAC | East | #43 | 24 | 8 | 75.0% | 1-1 | 50.0% | 15-7 | 68.2% | 87.0 | 76.3 | #23 Utah St | #183 Temple | W 11 | W 11 |
| 11 | SMU | AAC | Midwest | #46 | 20 | 13 | 60.6% | 1-3 | 25.0% | 11-11 | 50.0% | 84.2 | 77.6 | #20 North Carolina | #100 LSU | L 1 | W 8 |
| 12 | High Point | Big South | West | #87 | 27 | 4 | 87.1% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 4-3 | 57.1% | 86.5 | 71.8 | #137 Winthrop | #185 Appalachian St | W 14 | W 14 |
| 12 | Akron | MAC | Midwest | #52 | 27 | 5 | 84.4% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 13-5 | 72.2% | 86.9 | 74.5 | #94 Kent | #123 Troy | W 10 | W 10 |
| 12 | Northern Iowa | Missouri Valley | East | #97 | 22 | 12 | 64.7% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 11-10 | 52.4% | 69.1 | 62.1 | #107 UC Irvine | #173 S Illinois | W 5 | W 6 |
| 12 | McNeese State | Southland | South | #65 | 26 | 5 | 83.9% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 7-4 | 63.6% | 76.8 | 67.0 | #83 SF Austin | #303 Incarnate Word | W 10 | W 10 |
| 13 | Cal Baptist | WAC | East | #73 | 26 | 8 | 76.5% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 10-6 | 62.5% | 72.7 | 67.4 | #80 Utah Valley | #236 Tarleton St | W 7 | W 9 |
| 13 | Hawaii | Big West | West | #101 | 23 | 9 | 71.9% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 11-5 | 68.8% | 79.1 | 70.8 | #107 UC Irvine | #254 Long Beach St | W 2 | W 5 |
| 13 | Hofstra | CAA | Midwest | #99 | 22 | 10 | 68.8% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 14-7 | 66.7% | 74.5 | 67.6 | #90 Syracuse | #297 NC A&T | W 7 | W 7 |
| 13 | Troy | Sun Belt | South | #123 | 20 | 11 | 64.5% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 13-9 | 59.1% | 78.3 | 74.5 | #39 San Diego St | #267 West Georgia | W 4 | W 5 |
| 14 | North Dakota State | Summit | East | #112 | 24 | 7 | 77.4% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 3-5 | 37.5% | 79.1 | 70.8 | #138 St Thomas MN | #258 UTEP | W 4 | W 9 |
| 14 | Wright State | Horizon | Midwest | #131 | 21 | 11 | 65.6% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 7-9 | 43.8% | 80.0 | 75.4 | #182 WI Green Bay | #310 Cleveland St | W 5 | W 7 |
| 14 | Penn | Ivy League | South | #127 | 17 | 11 | 60.7% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 9-7 | 56.3% | 74.6 | 73.4 | #78 Yale | #287 Princeton | W 5 | W 5 |
| 14 | Kennesaw State | C-USA | West | #135 | 18 | 13 | 58.1% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 7-6 | 53.8% | 80.5 | 78.4 | #79 Liberty | #324 Oral Roberts | W 3 | L 4 |
| 15 | Furman | Southern | East | #180 | 19 | 12 | 61.3% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 8-8 | 50.0% | 75.1 | 72.2 | #161 Queens NC | #334 Citadel | W 3 | W 5 |
| 15 | Idaho | Big Sky | South | #192 | 18 | 14 | 56.3% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 4-9 | 30.8% | 76.7 | 74.0 | #140 CS Northridge | #322 CS Bakersfield | W 5 | W 5 |
| 15 | Tennessee State | Ohio Valley | Midwest | #165 | 20 | 9 | 69.0% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 10-7 | 58.8% | 78.1 | 73.9 | #95 UNLV | #317 Tennessee Tech | W 6 | W 6 |
| 15 | Queens (NC) | Atlantic Sun | West | #161 | 20 | 13 | 60.6% | 0-3 | 0.0% | 3-11 | 21.4% | 84.8 | 83.2 | #143 Austin Peay | #283 Bellarmine | W 3 | W 7 |
| 16 | Siena | Metro | East | #175 | 23 | 11 | 67.6% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 7-9 | 43.8% | 70.5 | 65.7 | #136 Merrimack | #278 Sacred Heart | W 4 | W 7 |
| 16 | LIU | Northeast | West | #178 | 24 | 10 | 70.6% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 4-3 | 57.1% | 74.1 | 71.1 | #186 James Madison | #320 New Haven | W 5 | W 6 |
| 16 | Howard | Mid-Eastern | Midwest | #224 | 19 | 10 | 65.5% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 2-3 | 40.0% | 75.0 | 67.8 | #86 UNC Wilmington | #355 MD E Shore | W 8 | W 8 |
| 16 | Lehigh | Patriot League | South | #252 | 16 | 16 | 50.0% | 0-1 | 0.0% | 4-9 | 30.8% | 72.4 | 74.7 | #191 Texas St | #363 Binghamton | W 6 | W 6 |
| 17 | Miami (OH) | MAC | Midwest | #38 | 28 | 1 | 96.6% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 12-1 | 92.3% | 87.2 | 76.3 | #52 Akron | #194 Massachusetts | L 1 | W 28 |
| 17 | Texas | SEC | West | #67 | 17 | 14 | 54.8% | 2-5 | 28.6% | 7-12 | 36.8% | 82.6 | 76.8 | #17 Alabama | #109 Mississippi St | L 3 | W 5 |
| 17 | Prairie View A&M | SWAC | South | #268 | 14 | 17 | 45.2% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 2-8 | 20.0% | 75.7 | 78.5 | #221 Bethune-Cookman | #335 Alabama St | W 7 | W 7 |
| 18 | UMBC | America East | Midwest | #196 | 22 | 8 | 73.3% | 0-0 | 0.0% | 2-5 | 28.6% | 75.4 | 68.0 | #237 Vermont | #351 Bryant | W 12 | W 12 |
10 Data-Driven Bracket Tips for 2026 March Madness
Based on our 50,000 simulations and full-season data analysis, here are the actionable takeaways for building a winning bracket:
- Pick Michigan to win it all. They have the highest championship probability (14.7%), the No. 1 power ranking across all of D-I, and the 2nd-toughest schedule among tournament teams. The Midwest Region offers the most navigable path for a 1-seed.
- Don't sleep on Duke. At 13.3%, Duke is right behind Michigan and enters on an 11-game winning streak—the longest current streak of any 1-seed. Their No. 2 defense in all of D-I could be the difference in tight second-weekend games.
- The West Region is a meat grinder. Arizona (12.5%), Purdue (5.1%), Gonzaga (4.0%), and Arkansas (1.9%) all have legitimate Final Four upside. Arizona has the lowest Final Four probability (36.7%) of any 1-seed because of this gauntlet.
- Illinois is the best 3-seed in the field—by far. Power Rank No. 7 in D-I on a 3-seed line, with a 5.0% championship probability. That's higher than 2-seed UConn (3.3%). The Illini are the sneaky Final Four pick most people will miss.
- Louisville is the deepest sleeper in the bracket. A 6-seed with the No. 11 power ranking in D-I—stronger than every other 6-, 7-, 8-, and 9-seed. Their 19.0% Elite Eight probability is absurdly underpriced by the public.
- Pick at least one 12-seed upset. All four 12-seeds (McNeese State, High Point, Akron, Northern Iowa) have first-round upset probabilities between 27.3% and 28.2%. All four are currently on winning streaks of 5 games or more. Historically, at least one 12-seed wins every year.
- Santa Clara over Kentucky is nearly a coin flip. Our model gives the 10-seed Broncos a 44.3% chance of advancing past 7-seed Kentucky. Kentucky's 21-13 record, 3-8 Top 25 mark, and 43.5% winning rate against above-.500 opponents make them the most vulnerable 7-seed in the field.
- Fade Alabama. Yes, they score 91.7 PPG—the most in America. But they allow 83.5 with a No. 158 defensive rating. That's a tournament death sentence. Only 1.8% championship odds for a 4-seed.
- Virginia's 0-3 Top 25 record is a red flag. The Cavaliers are 29-5 overall but winless against ranked opponents. Their best win came against Versus #26 Louisville. That's a glaring vulnerability for a 3-seed who will face a Top 25 opponent no later than the Sweet 16.
- Watch the current streaks. Teams entering the tournament on long winning streaks carry valuable momentum: Duke (W 11), Arizona (W 9), South Florida (W 11), High Point (W 14), Akron (W 10), and McNeese State (W 10) all warrant bracket confidence. Conversely, teams entering cold—like Texas Tech (L 3), Michigan State (L 2), and North Carolina (L 2)—may be more vulnerable than their seed suggests.
Frequently Asked Questions: 2026 March Madness Predictions
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Steve Pugh, Founder and CEO, Compughter Technologies, LLC
Steve Pugh, the founder of Versus Sports Simulator, is passionate about the world of sports analytics and statistical modeling. With a deep-rooted love for math and sports, and a commitment to innovation, he's dedicated to equipping sports enthusiasts with useful tools and insights to help them make informed betting decisions.