Predicted Order of Conference Finish Saturday, August 1, 2026
Teams are ordered by projected conference wins. “Projected Record” (e.g. 5.1–3.9) is a team’s expected wins and losses — the sum of its game-by-game win probabilities across the conference schedule.
Big Sky Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Montana St
1
7.0–2.0
1
1
Montana
2
6.5–3.5
2
2
UC-Davis
3
5.6–3.4
3
4
Northern Arizona
4
5.3–4.7
6
6
Southern Utah
5
5.0–4.0
4
5
Idaho
6
4.6–4.4
8
3
Idaho St
7
4.5–4.5
5
7
Weber St
8
4.3–5.7
9
12
Eastern Washington
9
4.2–4.8
7
10
Cal Poly SLO
10
3.9–5.1
10
11
Utah Tech
11
3.8–7.2
12
9
Portland St
12
3.2–5.8
11
13
Northern Colorado
13
3.0–6.0
13
8
Colonial Athletic Association (CAA)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Monmouth NJ
1
5.3–2.7
1
9
Rhode Island
2
5.2–2.8
2
1
New Hampshire
3
4.9–3.1
3
2
Elon
4
4.7–3.3
5
3
Stony Brook
5
4.3–3.7
4
7
Towson
6
4.3–3.7
6
4
Maine
7
3.9–4.1
8
5
Campbell
8
3.8–4.2
7
11
Bryant
9
3.7–4.3
9
10
Albany NY
10
3.6–4.4
10
6
Sacred Heart
11
3.2–4.8
11
8
Hampton
12
2.8–5.2
13
12
North Carolina A&T
13
2.4–5.6
12
13
Ivy League
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Yale
1
4.3–2.7
2
1
Harvard
2
4.0–3.0
1
5
Dartmouth
3
3.7–3.3
5
4
Pennsylvania
4
3.5–3.5
3
7
Princeton
5
3.4–3.6
7
2
Brown
6
3.3–3.7
4
8
Cornell NY
7
3.0–4.0
6
6
Columbia
8
2.9–4.1
8
3
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
South Carolina St
1
3.2–1.8
1
1
North Carolina Central
2
3.0–2.0
2
2
Delaware St
3
2.7–2.3
3
5
Morgan St
4
2.2–2.8
5
4
Howard
5
2.1–2.9
6
3
Norfolk St
6
1.8–3.2
4
6
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
South Dakota St
1
5.3–2.7
3
1
North Dakota
2
5.2–2.8
2
2
Illinois St
3
4.7–3.3
4
3
Youngstown St
4
4.5–3.5
1
7
Southern Illinois
5
4.3–3.7
5
5
South Dakota
6
4.2–3.8
6
4
Northern Iowa
7
3.1–4.9
7
6
Indiana St
8
2.4–5.6
8
8
Murray St
9
2.2–5.8
9
9
Northeast Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Duquesne
1
4.3–2.7
1
4
Central Conn St
2
4.0–3.0
2
3
LIU
3
3.9–3.1
5
1
Robert Morris
4
3.4–3.6
6
2
Mercyhurst
5
3.2–3.8
4
7
Wagner
6
3.2–3.8
7
6
Stonehill
7
3.1–3.9
8
5
New Haven
8
3.0–4.0
3
8
Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Tennessee-Martin
1
4.5–2.5
2
1
Gardner-Webb
2
3.9–3.1
1
7
SE Missouri St
3
3.7–3.3
4
5
Lindenwood
4
3.6–3.4
5
6
Charleston Southern
5
3.3–3.7
7
2
Eastern Illinois
6
3.3–3.7
6
4
Western Illinois
7
2.9–4.1
3
8
Tennessee St
8
2.8–4.2
8
3
Patriot League
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Villanova
1
6.1–2.9
2
1
Lehigh
2
5.6–3.4
4
2
William & Mary
3
5.1–3.9
3
5
Holy Cross
4
4.9–4.1
6
4
Lafayette
5
4.8–4.2
1
6
Richmond
6
4.7–4.3
8
3
Colgate
7
4.0–5.0
5
9
Bucknell
8
3.3–5.7
7
10
Fordham
9
3.3–5.7
9
7
Georgetown DC
10
3.1–5.9
10
8
Pioneer Football Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Drake
1
5.1–2.9
3
1
St Thomas MN
2
5.1–2.9
2
3
San Diego
3
5.1–2.9
1
2
Presbyterian
4
5.0–3.0
4
5
Dayton
5
4.6–3.4
7
4
Butler
6
4.2–3.8
5
6
Morehead St
7
3.6–4.4
9
8
Marist
8
3.6–4.4
8
7
Davidson
9
2.8–5.2
6
10
Valparaiso
10
2.7–5.3
10
9
Stetson
11
2.3–5.7
11
11
Southern Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Tennessee Tech
1
5.8–3.2
4
2
Mercer
2
5.1–2.9
2
3
East Tennessee St
3
4.7–3.3
3
4
Chattanooga
4
4.6–4.4
5
6
Western Carolina
5
4.5–3.5
1
9
Wofford
6
4.1–3.9
9
1
Furman
7
3.7–4.3
6
7
The Citadel
8
3.4–4.6
8
5
Samford
9
3.1–4.9
7
8
VMI
10
2.0–6.0
10
10
Southland Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Stephen F. Austin
1
6.3–2.7
1
1
SE Louisiana
2
5.9–3.1
3
2
Incarnate Word
3
5.2–3.8
4
5
Texas-Rio Grande Valley
4
5.2–3.8
2
6
Lamar
5
5.1–3.9
6
3
Nicholls St
6
4.6–4.4
7
4
McNeese St
7
4.1–4.9
8
7
East Texas A&M
8
3.5–5.5
5
9
Houston Christian
9
3.0–6.0
9
8
Northwestern St
10
2.0–7.0
10
10
Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)
East Division
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Alabama St
1
6.1–2.9
1
2
Jackson St
2
5.3–2.7
2
1
Bethune-Cookman
3
4.2–3.8
3
4
Florida A&M
4
4.1–3.9
5
3
Alabama A&M
5
3.4–4.6
4
5
Mississippi Valley St
6
2.2–5.8
6
6
West Division
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Prairie View A&M
1
5.0–3.0
1
1
Texas Southern
2
4.3–3.7
2
4
Grambling St
3
4.1–3.9
3
2
Alcorn St
4
4.1–3.9
4
3
Southern U.
5
3.5–5.5
5
5
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
6
2.6–5.4
6
6
United Athletic Conference (UAC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Tarleton St
1
5.0–2.0
1
1
Abilene Christian
2
4.1–2.9
3
3
Austin Peay
3
4.0–3.0
2
5
Eastern Kentucky
4
3.5–3.5
7
2
Central Arkansas
5
3.3–3.7
4
6
West Georgia
6
3.2–3.8
6
4
North Alabama
7
2.8–4.2
5
8
West Florida
8
2.1–4.9
8
7
FCS College Football
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