Predicted Order of Conference Finish Saturday, August 1, 2026
Teams are ordered by projected conference winning percentage. “Projected Record” (e.g. 6.1–2.9) is a team’s expected wins and losses: the sum of its game-by-game win probabilities across the conference schedule.
Big Sky Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Montana St
1
8.2–0.8
1
1
Montana
2
7.4–2.6
2
3
UC-Davis
3
6.4–2.6
3
4
Southern Utah
4
5.4–3.6
4
5
Northern Arizona
5
5.6–4.4
6
6
Idaho
6
4.8–4.2
8
2
Idaho St
7
4.6–4.4
5
7
Eastern Washington
8
3.9–5.1
7
10
Cal Poly SLO
9
3.6–5.4
10
11
Weber St
10
3.9–6.1
9
12
Portland St
11
2.3–6.7
11
13
Utah Tech
12
2.7–8.3
12
9
Northern Colorado
13
2.2–6.8
13
8
Colonial Athletic Association (CAA)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Monmouth NJ
1
6.1–1.9
1
9
Rhode Island
2
6.0–2.0
2
2
New Hampshire
3
5.5–2.5
3
1
Elon
4
5.2–2.8
5
3
Stony Brook
5
4.6–3.4
4
7
Towson
6
4.5–3.5
7
4
Maine
7
3.8–4.2
8
5
Campbell
8
3.5–4.5
6
11
Bryant
9
3.4–4.6
9
10
Albany NY
10
3.3–4.7
10
6
Sacred Heart
11
2.5–5.5
11
8
Hampton
12
2.0–6.0
13
12
North Carolina A&T
13
1.4–6.6
12
13
Ivy League
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Yale
1
5.0–2.0
2
1
Harvard
2
4.5–2.5
1
5
Dartmouth
3
3.9–3.1
5
4
Pennsylvania
4
3.4–3.6
3
7
Princeton
5
3.2–3.8
7
2
Brown
6
3.0–4.0
4
8
Cornell NY
7
2.5–4.5
6
6
Columbia
8
2.4–4.6
8
3
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
South Carolina St
1
3.7–1.3
1
1
North Carolina Central
2
3.4–1.6
2
2
Delaware St
3
2.9–2.1
3
5
Morgan St
4
1.9–3.1
5
4
Howard
5
1.7–3.3
6
3
Norfolk St
6
1.3–3.7
4
6
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
South Dakota St
1
6.1–1.9
3
1
North Dakota
2
5.9–2.1
2
2
Illinois St
3
5.1–2.9
4
3
Youngstown St
4
4.8–3.2
1
7
Southern Illinois
5
4.5–3.5
5
5
South Dakota
6
4.3–3.7
6
4
Northern Iowa
7
2.5–5.5
7
6
Indiana St
8
1.5–6.5
9
8
Murray St
9
1.2–6.8
8
9
Northeast Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Duquesne
1
4.9–2.1
1
4
Central Conn St
2
4.5–2.5
2
3
LIU
3
4.2–2.8
5
1
Robert Morris
4
3.2–3.8
7
2
Mercyhurst
5
3.1–3.9
4
7
Wagner
6
2.9–4.1
6
5
Stonehill
7
2.7–4.3
8
6
New Haven
8
2.5–4.5
3
8
Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Tennessee-Martin
1
5.3–1.7
2
1
Gardner-Webb
2
4.2–2.8
1
7
SE Missouri St
3
3.9–3.1
4
5
Lindenwood
4
3.7–3.3
5
6
Charleston Southern
5
3.1–3.9
7
2
Eastern Illinois
6
3.1–3.9
6
4
Western Illinois
7
2.4–4.6
3
8
Tennessee St
8
2.3–4.7
8
3
Patriot League
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Villanova
1
7.1–1.9
2
1
Lehigh
2
6.4–2.6
4
2
William & Mary
3
5.5–3.5
3
5
Holy Cross
4
5.2–3.8
6
4
Lafayette
5
5.1–3.9
1
6
Richmond
6
4.8–4.2
8
3
Colgate
7
3.7–5.3
5
9
Bucknell
8
2.5–6.5
7
10
Fordham
9
2.5–6.5
9
8
Georgetown DC
10
2.2–6.8
10
7
Pioneer Football Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Drake
1
5.9–2.1
3
1
St Thomas MN
2
5.8–2.2
2
2
Presbyterian
3
5.6–2.4
4
5
San Diego
4
5.6–2.4
1
3
Dayton
5
4.9–3.1
7
4
Butler
6
4.4–3.6
5
6
Marist
7
3.3–4.7
8
7
Morehead St
8
3.2–4.8
9
8
Davidson
9
2.1–5.9
6
10
Valparaiso
10
1.8–6.2
10
9
Stetson
11
1.3–6.7
11
11
Southern Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Mercer
1
5.9–2.1
2
3
Tennessee Tech
2
6.6–2.4
4
2
East Tennessee St
3
5.2–2.8
3
5
Western Carolina
4
4.8–3.2
1
9
Wofford
5
4.2–3.8
9
1
Chattanooga
6
4.5–4.5
5
6
Furman
7
3.5–4.5
6
7
The Citadel
8
3.0–5.0
8
4
Samford
9
2.4–5.6
7
8
VMI
10
0.9–7.1
10
10
Southland Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Stephen F. Austin
1
7.3–1.7
1
1
SE Louisiana
2
6.7–2.3
3
2
Texas-Rio Grande Valley
3
5.6–3.4
2
6
Incarnate Word
4
5.6–3.4
4
5
Lamar
5
5.4–3.6
6
3
Nicholls St
6
4.6–4.4
7
4
McNeese St
7
3.8–5.2
8
7
East Texas A&M
8
2.7–6.3
5
9
Houston Christian
9
2.2–6.8
9
8
Northwestern St
10
0.9–8.1
10
10
Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)
East Division
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Alabama St
1
7.2–1.8
1
2
Jackson St
2
6.2–1.8
2
1
Bethune-Cookman
3
4.5–3.5
3
4
Florida A&M
4
4.2–3.8
5
3
Alabama A&M
5
3.0–5.0
4
5
Mississippi Valley St
6
1.1–6.9
6
6
West Division
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Prairie View A&M
1
5.7–2.3
1
1
Texas Southern
2
4.4–3.6
2
4
Grambling St
3
4.2–3.8
3
2
Alcorn St
4
4.1–3.9
4
3
Southern U.
5
2.7–6.3
5
5
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
6
1.6–6.4
6
6
United Athletic Conference (UAC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Tarleton St
1
6.0–1.0
1
1
Abilene Christian
2
4.6–2.4
3
3
Austin Peay
3
4.4–2.6
2
5
Eastern Kentucky
4
3.5–3.5
7
2
Central Arkansas
5
3.2–3.8
4
6
West Georgia
6
2.9–4.1
6
4
North Alabama
7
2.2–4.8
5
8
West Florida
8
1.2–5.8
8
7
FCS College Football
The rankings are just the start.
These are projections. Want a real prediction? Plug in any two teams and run the matchup yourself.
