Predicted Order of Conference Finish Saturday, August 1, 2026
Teams are ordered by projected conference wins. “Projected Record” (e.g. 5.1–3.9) is a team’s expected wins and losses — the sum of its game-by-game win probabilities across the conference schedule.
American Athletic Conference (AAC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Navy
1
5.1–3.9
5
4
Army
2
4.9–4.1
12
1
East Carolina
3
4.8–3.2
7
3
North Texas
4
4.8–3.2
1
13
South Florida
5
4.8–3.2
2
6
Texas-San Antonio
6
4.7–3.3
3
7
Memphis
7
4.6–3.4
4
5
Tulane
8
4.6–3.4
6
2
Temple
9
3.7–4.3
9
8
Tulsa
10
3.4–4.6
11
10
Florida Atlantic
11
3.3–4.7
8
12
Alabama-Birmingham
12
2.9–5.1
10
14
Rice
13
2.8–5.2
13
9
UNC-Charlotte
14
2.5–5.5
14
11
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Miami FL
1
6.4–2.6
1
1
SMU
2
5.6–3.4
2
3
Louisville
3
5.5–3.5
3
4
North Carolina St
4
4.8–4.2
9
11
Pittsburgh
5
4.7–4.3
4
9
Virginia
6
4.7–4.3
11
5
Clemson
7
4.6–3.4
6
2
Virginia Tech
8
4.5–4.5
10
7
Duke
9
4.2–4.8
8
17
Georgia Tech
10
4.2–3.8
7
8
Florida St
11
4.1–3.9
5
6
California
12
4.1–4.9
13
13
Wake Forest
13
3.8–5.2
14
10
Syracuse
14
3.3–5.7
16
16
North Carolina
15
3.2–4.8
15
12
Boston College
16
3.2–4.8
12
15
Stanford
17
3.1–5.9
17
14
Big 10 Conference (Big Ten)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Ohio State
1
6.3–2.7
4
1
Indiana
2
6.2–2.8
2
2
Oregon
3
6.0–3.0
1
3
Penn State
4
5.8–3.2
5
5
Washington
5
5.0–4.0
6
8
Southern Cal
6
4.9–4.1
3
9
Iowa
7
4.9–4.1
10
4
Michigan
8
4.8–4.2
7
6
Illinois
9
4.3–4.7
8
14
Wisconsin
10
4.2–4.8
18
7
UCLA
11
3.9–5.1
13
12
Maryland
12
3.9–5.1
12
15
Nebraska
13
3.8–5.2
11
10
Minnesota
14
3.6–5.4
15
13
Michigan St
15
3.6–5.4
14
16
Rutgers
16
3.5–5.5
9
18
Northwestern
17
3.2–5.8
17
11
Purdue
18
3.1–5.9
16
17
Big 12 Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Texas Tech
1
6.2–2.8
1
1
Utah
2
5.8–3.2
2
2
Kansas St
3
5.1–3.9
3
8
Brigham Young
4
5.1–3.9
6
3
Arizona
5
4.7–4.3
8
4
Houston
6
4.4–4.6
10
7
TCU
7
4.4–4.6
5
9
Kansas
8
4.4–4.6
7
13
Arizona St
9
4.3–4.7
11
5
Central Florida
10
4.3–4.7
15
10
Iowa St
11
4.3–4.7
12
6
Baylor
12
4.0–5.0
4
16
Cincinnati
13
3.8–5.2
9
11
Oklahoma St
14
3.8–5.2
16
12
Colorado
15
3.8–5.2
13
14
West Virginia
16
3.6–5.4
14
15
Conference USA (CUSA)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Liberty
1
4.9–3.1
1
2
Western Kentucky
2
4.8–3.2
2
1
Jacksonville St
3
4.6–3.4
3
3
Florida Int'l
4
4.2–3.8
6
5
Kennesaw St
5
4.0–4.0
7
4
Missouri St
6
3.7–4.3
5
8
Delaware
7
3.7–4.3
4
9
New Mexico St
8
3.6–4.4
9
6
Middle Tennessee St
9
3.5–4.5
8
7
Sam Houston St
10
2.9–5.1
10
10
Mid-American Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Toledo
1
5.6–2.4
1
1
Miami OH
2
4.9–3.1
3
2
Western Michigan
3
4.7–3.3
2
3
Ohio U.
4
4.6–3.4
4
4
Bowling Green
5
4.2–3.8
10
5
Central Michigan
6
4.2–3.8
7
6
Buffalo
7
4.0–4.0
8
7
Eastern Michigan
8
3.8–4.2
6
10
Sacramento St
9
3.6–4.4
5
11
Akron
10
3.6–4.4
11
8
Ball St
11
3.5–4.5
12
9
Kent St
12
3.1–4.9
9
12
Massachusetts
13
2.4–5.6
13
13
Mountain West Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
North Dakota St
1
5.3–3.7
2
2
UNLV
2
4.8–3.2
1
8
New Mexico
3
4.5–3.5
3
4
Air Force
4
4.4–3.6
4
6
Hawai`i
5
4.1–3.9
5
7
San Jose St
6
4.1–4.9
6
9
Wyoming
7
3.7–4.3
9
1
Nevada
8
3.6–4.4
8
5
Northern Illinois
9
3.4–4.6
10
3
UTEP
10
3.1–4.9
7
10
Pac-12 Conference
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Boise St
1
5.1–2.9
2
1
Washington St
2
4.4–3.6
4
3
San Diego St
3
4.1–3.9
5
2
Texas St-San Marcos
4
4.0–4.0
1
8
Fresno St
5
3.9–4.1
7
4
Utah St
6
3.7–4.3
3
7
Oregon St
7
3.5–4.5
6
5
Colorado St
8
3.2–4.8
8
6
Southeastern Conference (SEC)
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Georgia
1
5.4–3.6
5
1
Texas
2
5.4–3.6
3
2
Alabama
3
5.1–3.9
7
4
Mississippi
4
5.0–4.0
1
11
Texas A&M
5
4.9–4.1
4
10
Oklahoma
6
4.9–4.1
11
3
Tennessee
7
4.7–4.3
2
13
LSU
8
4.7–4.3
9
7
Missouri
9
4.4–4.6
12
6
Auburn
10
4.3–4.7
14
5
Vanderbilt
11
4.2–4.8
6
14
South Carolina
12
4.2–4.8
15
8
Florida
13
4.1–4.9
13
9
Arkansas
14
3.8–5.2
8
15
Kentucky
15
3.5–5.5
16
12
Mississippi St
16
3.4–5.6
10
16
Sun Belt Conference
East Division
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
James Madison
1
5.4–2.6
1
1
Old Dominion
2
4.8–3.2
4
2
Marshall
3
4.5–3.5
2
3
Georgia Southern
4
3.6–4.4
3
5
Appalachian St
5
3.6–4.4
6
4
Coastal Carolina
6
3.4–4.6
5
6
Georgia St
7
3.2–4.8
7
7
West Division
Team
Order of FinishFinish
Projected RecordProj W–L
OffenseOff
DefenseDef
Troy
1
4.5–3.5
3
1
Louisiana Tech
2
4.3–3.7
4
2
Louisiana-Lafayette
3
4.2–3.8
2
4
South Alabama
4
4.2–3.8
1
5
Arkansas St
5
4.0–4.0
5
3
Southern Miss
6
3.3–4.7
6
7
Louisiana-Monroe
7
3.0–5.0
7
6
College Football
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