Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: Michigan 70%, Ohio St 30% at Michigan.
Michigan's win probability against Ohio St has swung between 58% and 63% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 58% now.
Michigan's win probability against Ohio St has swung between 64% and 69% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 64% now.
Michigan's win probability against Ohio St has held at 70% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.