Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: Illinois 56%, Oregon 44% at Illinois.
Illinois' win probability against Oregon has held at 43% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Illinois' win probability against Oregon has held at 49% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Illinois' win probability against Oregon has held at 56% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.