Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Toronto
Tampa Bay
|
79
C+
|
Overall |
96
A
|
|
73
C-
|
Power |
92
A-
|
|
64
D
6099
|
Offensive |
88
B+
6099
|
|
Toronto
6099
Tampa Bay
6099
|
||
|
83
B-
6099
|
Defensive |
92
A-
6099
|
|
Toronto
6099
Tampa Bay
6099
|
||
|
83
B-
|
SoS (Current) |
76
C
|
|
83
B-
|
SoS (Full Season) |
76
C
|
Toronto
Tampa Bay
| 16 | Overall | 3 |
| 20 | Power | 6 |
| 27 | Offensive | 9 |
| 13 | Defensive | 6 |
| 13 | SoS (Current) | 18 |
| 13 | SoS (Full Season) | 18 |
Wk 32 (Oct 31), 2026: Tampa Bay 53%, Toronto 47% at Toronto.
Tampa Bay's win probability against Toronto has held at 53% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Tampa Bay's win probability against Toronto has held at 56% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Tampa Bay's win probability against Toronto has held at 58% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
| Week | At Toronto | Neutral | At Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Wk 4 | 60% | 62% | 65% |
| Wk 5 | 56% | 59% | 62% |
| Wk 6 | 56% | 58% | 61% |
| Wk 7 | 57% | 59% | 62% |
| Wk 8 | 56% | 59% | 62% |
| Wk 9 | 55% | 58% | 60% |
| Wk 10 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 11 | 50% | 52% | 55% |
| Wk 12 | 49% | 52% | 55% |
| Wk 13 | 51% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 14 | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Wk 15 | 54% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 16 | 54% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 17 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 18 | 56% | 59% | 61% |
| Wk 19 | 55% | 57% | 60% |
| Wk 20 | 54% | 57% | 60% |
| Wk 21 | 55% | 57% | 60% |
| Wk 22 | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Wk 23 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 24 | 50% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 25 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 26 | 52% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 27 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 28 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 29 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 30 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 31 | 54% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 32 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
Toronto
Tampa Bay
|
4-9 (30.8%) |
Head to Head |
9-4 (69.2%) |
|
79-82 (49.1%) |
Overall |
106-70 (60.2%) |
|
42-39 (51.9%) |
Home |
60-29 (67.4%) |
|
37-43 (46.3%) |
Away |
46-41 (52.9%) |
|
13-22 (37.1%) |
Versus Top 5 |
14-16 (46.7%) |
|
35-43 (44.9%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
44-32 (57.9%) |
|
44-39 (53%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
62-38 (62%) |
|
4-6 (40%) |
Last 10 Games |
5-5 (50%) |
Toronto
Tampa Bay
| #1 Milwaukee | Best Win | #1 Milwaukee |
| #30 Colorado | Worst Loss | #29 LA Angels |
| 13 runs vs #29 LA Angels | Largest MOV | 11 runs vs #8 Philadelphia |
| 14 runs vs #7 Chi Cubs | Largest MOD | 11 runs vs #29 LA Angels |
Toronto
Tampa Bay
| 4 | Runs per Game | 4.4 |
| 4.3 | Runs Against | 4 |
| 4 | Home RPG | 4.5 |
| 4.3 | Home RA | 4 |
| 4.1 | Away RPG | 4.4 |
| 4.2 | Away RA | 4 |
| 13474-13102 | Opponent Record | 14562-14395 |
| 14.8 | Avg Opponent Rank | 15.2 |
| L 6 | Longest Streak | W 9 |
| W 1 | Current Streak | L 1 |
Toronto
Tampa Bay
| Sep 27 | vs Cincinnati (75-87) | W5-1 | Oct 28 | vs #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L1-4 |
| Sep 26 | vs Cincinnati (75-87) | L1-5 | Oct 27 | vs #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | W4-3 |
| Sep 25 | vs Cincinnati (75-87) | W6-5 | Oct 26 | vs #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L1-10 |
| Sep 23 | at Baltimore (79-82) | L2-4 | Oct 24 | at #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L4-5 |
| Sep 21 | at Baltimore (79-82) | L3-4 | Oct 23 | at #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L2-3 |
| Sep 20 | at Texas (80-82) | W7-2 | Oct 19 | vs Cleveland (90-83) | W7-3 |
| Sep 19 | at Texas (80-82) | L2-6 | Oct 18 | at Cleveland (90-83) | W3-1 |
| Sep 18 | at Texas (80-82) | L1-7 | Oct 17 | at Cleveland (90-83) | W7-3 |
| Sep 16 | vs Detroit (76-86) | W5-1 | Oct 15 | at Cleveland (90-83) | L2-3 |
| Sep 15 | vs Detroit (76-86) | L1-10 | Oct 13 | vs Cleveland (90-83) | W3-1 |