Augustana IL projected to edge Illinois Wesleyan by 7

Versus has Augustana IL winning at home 32-25, a projection that gives the Vikings a 67 percent chance to escape a tight number rather than the runaway their overall grade might suggest. Illinois Wesleyan sits at 42nd in D3 and Augustana IL at 45th, with both teams graded A- overall, so the model sees this as close even with a favorite attached.

The separation shows up underneath the overall marks. Augustana IL's A- offense ranks 40th in D3, well ahead of Illinois Wesleyan's B+ offense at 58th, and the Vikings' 36th-ranked strength of schedule stands in sharp contrast to Illinois Wesleyan's 105th. The Titans have been productive on both sides, with a B+ defense ranked 70th, but they have gotten there against lighter competition than Augustana IL has faced.

This is a College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin game, so it carries standings weight for both sides. Illinois Wesleyan arrives unbeaten at 2-0 and currently sits as the No. 3-ranked team in the CCIW, while Augustana IL is 1-1 and looking to use its deeper schedule resume to hand the Titans their first loss of the season.