Carleton's series dominance meets a shakier résumé against Hamline

Carleton has owned this series, winning 16 of 19 meetings since 2007 and taking eight straight from Hamline, who hasn't beaten the Knights since October 2018. That history lines up with Versus's projection, which favors Carleton to win 35-28 with a 68 percent chance, but neither team arrives playing its best football.

Carleton sits 94th in D3 with a B- overall grade, yet the Knights have been outscored on average over their last five games despite going 3-2 in that stretch, and both of their losses this season have come against teams with winning records. Their defense, graded a D, ranks 208th in the division, which keeps this projection closer than the series history alone would suggest.

Hamline has had a rougher stretch, dropping four straight and being outscored by a wide margin on average over its last five games. The Pipers carry a C- overall grade and rank 164th in D3, with a defense graded D- that sits 224th. All four of Hamline's losses this season have come against teams with winning records, and Carleton fits that profile.

This is a Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference game and counts in the league standings. Carleton's stronger overall grade and the weight of recent meetings point toward another Knights win, though Hamline's better strength of schedule rank, 51st against Carleton's 119th, suggests the Pipers have at least been tested more often this season.