Strength of schedule separates Dubuque from Simpson IA more than the ranks do

Both teams carry identical 3-2 records into this American Rivers Conference game, but the schedules behind those records look nothing alike. Dubuque sits at a strength of schedule rank of 29 in Division III, while Simpson IA checks in at 163, the widest gap in the profile and the clearest explanation for why Versus separates these two teams by 78 spots in the Division III rankings, 39 to 117.

Dubuque carries that into the matchup with an A- overall grade and a defense graded B-, built on the top Versus rating in the conference and a power rating that has climbed in each of the last three weeks. The Spartans have also scored at least 35 points in three straight games, a sign their B offensive grade undersells how the attack has been trending. Simpson IA counters with a B- overall grade and its own B- offense, but a defense graded C+ and that soft schedule rank leave more questions unanswered.

The Storm have not finished a season below .500 since 2023, and a win here would mean back-to-back victories for the first time since November 2025. Versus still gives Dubuque the edge, projecting a 31-28 win and a 56 percent chance to take it, with the result counting fully in the American Rivers Conference standings.