Montana State favored despite trailing Cal Poly in the rankings

Cal Poly sits 142nd among Division I teams, five spots ahead of Montana State at 147th, but Versus still makes the Bobcats nine-point favorites for Sunday's non-conference meeting. The reasoning shows up elsewhere in the numbers: Montana State holds a 123rd power rank against Cal Poly's 181st, and the Bobcats carry a B grade on defense compared to Cal Poly's D+. Montana State also owns the highest Versus rating in the Big Sky Conference, and the Bobcats have won 14 of their last 17 games at home.

Cal Poly arrives at 2-2 after a 83-74 win at Idaho on Friday, a result notable on its own since Cal Poly hadn't beaten Idaho since November 2022. The Mustangs' offense grades out at a B and ranks 123rd, but a D+ defense ranked 278th leaves plenty of room for Montana State to score. The Bobcats are 1-2, dropping their most recent game at BYU after beating Long Beach State at home, a stretch that began with a loss at Colorado State.

Montana State leads the series 3-0 in meetings since 2009 and has won every game in that stretch, including the most recent matchup. Both programs have climbed well beyond their preseason rankings, Cal Poly up 79 spots and Montana State up 46, but Versus's model still favors the home team by a wide margin.