Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Cincinnati
Toronto
|
73
C-
|
Overall |
79
C+
|
|
63
D-
|
Power |
73
C-
|
|
67
D+
6099
|
Offensive |
64
D
6099
|
|
Cincinnati
6099
Toronto
6099
|
||
|
63
D-
6099
|
Defensive |
83
B-
6099
|
|
Cincinnati
6099
Toronto
6099
|
||
|
99
A+
|
SoS (Current) |
83
B-
|
|
99
A+
|
SoS (Full Season) |
83
B-
|
Cincinnati
Toronto
| 20 | Overall | 16 |
| 28 | Power | 20 |
| 25 | Offensive | 27 |
| 28 | Defensive | 13 |
| 1 | SoS (Current) | 13 |
| 1 | SoS (Full Season) | 13 |
Wk 32 (Oct 30), 2026: Toronto 57%, Cincinnati 43% at Toronto.
Toronto's win probability against Cincinnati has held at 52% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Toronto's win probability against Cincinnati has held at 54% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Toronto's win probability against Cincinnati has held at 57% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
| Week | At Cincinnati | Neutral | At Toronto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | 49% | 52% | 54% |
| Wk 4 | 37% | 39% | 42% |
| Wk 5 | 38% | 40% | 43% |
| Wk 6 | 45% | 47% | 50% |
| Wk 7 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 8 | 50% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 9 | 54% | 57% | 59% |
| Wk 10 | 54% | 57% | 59% |
| Wk 11 | 54% | 57% | 59% |
| Wk 12 | 55% | 58% | 61% |
| Wk 13 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 14 | 50% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 15 | 50% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 16 | 49% | 51% | 54% |
| Wk 17 | 48% | 50% | 53% |
| Wk 18 | 47% | 49% | 52% |
| Wk 19 | 48% | 51% | 53% |
| Wk 20 | 48% | 50% | 53% |
| Wk 21 | 49% | 52% | 54% |
| Wk 22 | 51% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 23 | 51% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 24 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 25 | 52% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 26 | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Wk 27 | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Wk 28 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 29 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 30 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 31 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 32 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
Cincinnati
Toronto
|
1-2 (33.3%) |
Head to Head |
2-1 (66.7%) |
|
75-87 (46.3%) |
Overall |
79-82 (49.1%) |
|
38-43 (46.9%) |
Home |
42-39 (51.9%) |
|
37-44 (45.7%) |
Away |
37-43 (46.3%) |
|
12-20 (37.5%) |
Versus Top 5 |
13-22 (37.1%) |
|
36-52 (40.9%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
35-43 (44.9%) |
|
39-35 (52.7%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
44-39 (53%) |
|
4-6 (40%) |
Last 10 Games |
4-6 (40%) |
Cincinnati
Toronto
| #1 Milwaukee | Best Win | #1 Milwaukee |
| #30 Colorado | Worst Loss | #30 Colorado |
| 14 runs vs #18 Washington | Largest MOV | 13 runs vs #29 LA Angels |
| 20 runs vs #1 Milwaukee | Largest MOD | 14 runs vs #7 Chi Cubs |
Cincinnati
Toronto
| 4.1 | Runs per Game | 4 |
| 5.1 | Runs Against | 4.3 |
| 4 | Home RPG | 4 |
| 4.7 | Home RA | 4.3 |
| 4.2 | Away RPG | 4.1 |
| 5.5 | Away RA | 4.2 |
| 13724-13017 | Opponent Record | 13474-13102 |
| 13.4 | Avg Opponent Rank | 14.8 |
| L 8 | Longest Streak | L 6 |
| L 1 | Current Streak | W 1 |
Cincinnati
Toronto
| Sep 27 | at Toronto (79-83) | L1-5 | Sep 27 | vs Cincinnati (75-87) | W5-1 |
| Sep 26 | at Toronto (79-83) | W5-1 | Sep 26 | vs Cincinnati (75-87) | L1-5 |
| Sep 25 | at Toronto (79-83) | L5-6 | Sep 25 | vs Cincinnati (75-87) | W6-5 |
| Sep 24 | at #4 Atlanta (97-72) | W7-6 | Sep 23 | at Baltimore (79-82) | L2-4 |
| Sep 23 | at #4 Atlanta (97-72) | L2-3 | Sep 21 | at Baltimore (79-82) | L3-4 |
| Sep 22 | at #4 Atlanta (97-72) | W4-0 | Sep 20 | at Texas (80-82) | W7-2 |
| Sep 20 | vs Chi Cubs (89-75) | L1-9 | Sep 19 | at Texas (80-82) | L2-6 |
| Sep 19 | vs Chi Cubs (89-75) | L2-5 | Sep 18 | at Texas (80-82) | L1-7 |
| Sep 18 | vs Chi Cubs (89-75) | W6-4 | Sep 16 | vs Detroit (76-86) | W5-1 |
| Sep 17 | vs #2 LA Dodgers (103-67) | L2-8 | Sep 15 | vs Detroit (76-86) | L1-10 |