Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
St. Louis
Atlanta
|
77
C+
|
Overall |
95
A
|
|
76
C
|
Power |
94
A
|
|
77
C+
6099
|
Offensive |
90
A-
6099
|
|
St. Louis
6099
Atlanta
6099
|
||
|
76
C
6099
|
Defensive |
95
A
6099
|
|
St. Louis
6099
Atlanta
6099
|
||
|
95
A
|
SoS (Current) |
86
B
|
|
95
A
|
SoS (Full Season) |
86
B
|
St. Louis
Atlanta
| 17 | Overall | 4 |
| 18 | Power | 5 |
| 17 | Offensive | 8 |
| 18 | Defensive | 4 |
| 4 | SoS (Current) | 11 |
| 4 | SoS (Full Season) | 11 |
Wk 32 (Oct 30), 2026: Atlanta 53%, St. Louis 47% at St. Louis.
Atlanta's win probability against St. Louis has held at 53% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Atlanta's win probability against St. Louis has held at 56% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Atlanta's win probability against St. Louis has held at 59% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
| Week | At St. Louis | Neutral | At Atlanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | 77% | 79% | 81% |
| Wk 4 | 76% | 78% | 80% |
| Wk 5 | 71% | 73% | 75% |
| Wk 6 | 62% | 64% | 67% |
| Wk 7 | 59% | 62% | 64% |
| Wk 8 | 63% | 66% | 68% |
| Wk 9 | 64% | 66% | 69% |
| Wk 10 | 63% | 65% | 68% |
| Wk 11 | 61% | 63% | 66% |
| Wk 12 | 58% | 61% | 64% |
| Wk 13 | 58% | 60% | 63% |
| Wk 14 | 58% | 60% | 63% |
| Wk 15 | 54% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 16 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 17 | 55% | 57% | 60% |
| Wk 18 | 55% | 58% | 60% |
| Wk 19 | 55% | 58% | 60% |
| Wk 20 | 56% | 58% | 61% |
| Wk 21 | 55% | 58% | 60% |
| Wk 22 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 23 | 55% | 57% | 60% |
| Wk 24 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 25 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 26 | 54% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 27 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 28 | 54% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 29 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 30 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 31 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
| Wk 32 | 53% | 56% | 59% |
St. Louis
Atlanta
|
4-2 (66.7%) |
Head to Head |
2-4 (33.3%) |
|
77-85 (47.5%) |
Overall |
97-72 (57.4%) |
|
38-43 (46.9%) |
Home |
54-32 (62.8%) |
|
39-42 (48.1%) |
Away |
43-40 (51.8%) |
|
14-17 (45.2%) |
Versus Top 5 |
11-11 (50%) |
|
41-45 (47.7%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
43-33 (56.6%) |
|
36-40 (47.4%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
54-39 (58.1%) |
|
2-8 (20%) |
Last 10 Games |
4-6 (40%) |
St. Louis
Atlanta
| #1 Milwaukee | Best Win | #1 Milwaukee |
| #30 Colorado | Worst Loss | #29 LA Angels |
| 16 runs vs #7 Chi Cubs | Largest MOV | 15 runs vs #10 Arizona |
| 12 runs vs #15 Baltimore | Largest MOD | 12 runs vs #14 Miami |
St. Louis
Atlanta
| 4.4 | Runs per Game | 4.5 |
| 4.6 | Runs Against | 3.8 |
| 3.8 | Home RPG | 4.7 |
| 4.6 | Home RA | 3.9 |
| 5.1 | Away RPG | 4.3 |
| 4.6 | Away RA | 3.8 |
| 13632-13074 | Opponent Record | 13965-13796 |
| 13.9 | Avg Opponent Rank | 14.6 |
| W 6 | Longest Streak | W 8 |
| L 4 | Current Streak | L 2 |
St. Louis
Atlanta
| Sep 27 | at #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L4-6 | Oct 7 | vs #2 LA Dodgers (103-67) | L1-4 |
| Sep 26 | at #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L2-3 | Oct 6 | vs #2 LA Dodgers (103-67) | L1-3 |
| Sep 25 | at #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L4-8 | Oct 4 | at #2 LA Dodgers (103-67) | W3-2 |
| Sep 24 | at Pittsburgh (82-80) | L1-2 | Oct 3 | at #2 LA Dodgers (103-67) | L3-5 |
| Sep 23 | at Pittsburgh (82-80) | W5-1 | Oct 1 | vs Philadelphia (89-76) | W6-2 |
| Sep 22 | at Pittsburgh (82-80) | L0-2 | Sep 30 | vs Philadelphia (89-76) | L3-4 |
| Sep 20 | vs Washington (77-85) | W5-3 | Sep 29 | vs Philadelphia (89-76) | W5-3 |
| Sep 19 | vs Washington (77-85) | L5-8 | Sep 27 | at Miami (80-82) | L3-5 |
| Sep 18 | vs Washington (77-85) | L1-9 | Sep 26 | at Miami (80-82) | W8-3 |
| Sep 16 | vs San Francisco (65-97) | L5-6 | Sep 25 | at Miami (80-82) | L0-3 |