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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Connecticut 84%, Massachusetts 16% at Connecticut.
Connecticut's win probability against Massachusetts has swung between 48% and 76% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 76% now.
Connecticut's win probability against Massachusetts has swung between 55% and 80% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 80% now.
Connecticut's win probability against Massachusetts has swung between 61% and 84% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 84% now.