Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: South Florida 91%, Tennessee St 9% at South Florida.
South Florida's win probability against Tennessee St has swung between 83% and 88% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 83% now.
South Florida's win probability against Tennessee St has held at 87% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
South Florida's win probability against Tennessee St has held at 91% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.