Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Northern Iowa 61%, Illinois St 39% at Northern Iowa.
Northern Iowa's win probability against Illinois St has held at 48% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Northern Iowa's win probability against Illinois St has held at 55% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Northern Iowa's win probability against Illinois St has held at 61% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.