Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: UMBC 69%, NJIT 31% at NJIT.
UMBC's win probability against NJIT has swung between 69% and 74% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 69% now.
UMBC's win probability against NJIT has held at 75% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
UMBC's win probability against NJIT has held at 80% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.