Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Michigan St 54%, Arkansas 46% at a neutral site.
Michigan St's win probability against Arkansas has held at 47% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Michigan St's win probability against Arkansas has held at 54% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Michigan St's win probability against Arkansas has held at 60% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.