Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Illinois 96%, Winthrop 4% at Illinois.
Illinois' win probability against Winthrop is trending down — from 96% to 92% over the last 6 updates.
Illinois' win probability against Winthrop is trending down — from 97% to 94% over the last 6 updates.
Illinois' win probability against Winthrop has held at 96% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.