Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Illinois St 52%, Northern Iowa 48% at Illinois St.
Illinois St's win probability against Northern Iowa has held at 39% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Illinois St's win probability against Northern Iowa has held at 45% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Illinois St's win probability against Northern Iowa has held at 52% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.