Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: UMBC 83%, Delaware St 17% at Delaware St.
UMBC's win probability against Delaware St is trending down — from 88% to 83% over the last 6 updates.
UMBC's win probability against Delaware St is trending down — from 91% to 88% over the last 6 updates.
UMBC's win probability against Delaware St has held at 91% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.