Carnegie Mellon's power and defense trump Muhlenberg's record at home

Both teams arrive at 4-2, but that shared record masks very different seasons. Muhlenberg has actually slid 24 spots in the Versus Division III rankings this year, dropping from No. 16 to No. 40, even after a 49-7 win over McDaniel that was its most lopsided result since October 2025. Carnegie Mellon, meanwhile, sits at No. 61 in the division but has been trending the other way, outscoring its last five opponents on average while winning four of five.

Versus still gives the Mules the higher divisional rank, 40th to the Tartans' 61st, and Muhlenberg owns the head-to-head history, having won the teams' last meeting 27-23 in October 2025. But the deeper numbers favor the home team here. Carnegie Mellon carries an A- power grade and an A- defense, with a defensive rank of 36 against Muhlenberg's 73, and the Tartans have already won three games this season by 21 points or more.

This is a Centennial Conference game and it counts in the standings for both sides. Versus projects Carnegie Mellon to win 29-21, giving the Tartans a 69 percent chance to take it, with the model reading Muhlenberg's offensive and defensive grades as strong but not quite enough to offset Carnegie Mellon's sharper recent form.