Western Illinois favored over SE Missouri State despite softer slate

Strength of schedule is the real divider here, more than the rankings suggest. Western Illinois sits 54th in FCS with a schedule ranked 74th, while SE Missouri State is 41st overall despite having played the tougher slate at 36th. That gap matters because Western Illinois' gaudy production numbers have come against lighter competition, even if the three losses on its record all came to teams with winning records this season.

On paper, Western Illinois still grades out ahead in the parts of the model that measure quality of play, with an A in both offense and defense and a power grade to match, numbers that put the Leathernecks among the handful of FCS teams ranked in the top 25 nationally in both departments. Versus also lists Western Illinois as the No. 2 team in the Ohio Valley Conference entering this one.

SE Missouri State counters with the highest overall Versus rating in the league and a defense graded A- that ranks 26th in FCS, built against a harder set of opponents. The two split a close one last November, with SE Missouri State winning 22-17, and this meeting counts in the Ohio Valley Conference standings. Versus projects a similar finish, with Western Illinois favored 28-23 and given a 63 percent chance to win.