Nelson TX favored despite worse record against OK Panhandle State

The records say OK Panhandle State enters with two more wins than Nelson TX, but Versus has this one closer to even and leaning the other way. The Aggies sit at 2-4 and the Lions at 1-4, yet Nelson TX is projected to win 31-27, taking the game 59 percent of the time in simulation.

The ratings explain why. OK Panhandle State has been outscored on average over its last five games, going 2-3 in that stretch, and its defense carries a D+ grade with a divisional rank of 79th in NAIA. Its offense has leaned heavily on home games this season, scoring well above its road output, but that home cushion disappeared when the Aggies dropped their first home game of the year. Nelson TX brings its own rough patch, also outscored on average over its last five games, but all four of its losses this season have come against teams with winning records, a sign the competition has been tougher than the ledger shows.

Both programs carry a D+ power grade and sit within four spots of each other in the Sooner Athletic Conference's NAIA ranking, OK Panhandle State 54th and Nelson TX 67th. This is a conference game and it counts in the Sooner Athletic Conference standings, with Nelson TX projected to edge a tight four point margin at home.