D3 · Old Dominion Athletic ConferenceConference game
Hampden-Sydney's schedule edge outweighs Roanoke's unbeaten mark
Hampden-Sydney#6065%
Roanoke#8735%Wk 6 (Oct 4), 2026-27: Hampden-Sydney 65%, Roanoke 35% at Roanoke.
Hampden-Sydney's win probability against Roanoke has swung between 46% and 82% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 65% now.
Hampden-Sydney's win probability against Roanoke has swung between 52% and 86% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 71% now.
Hampden-Sydney's win probability against Roanoke has swung between 58% and 89% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 76% now.
Strength of schedule is what separates these two Old Dominion Athletic Conference teams more than their records suggest. Hampden-Sydney sits at a strength of schedule rank of 119 in Division III, while Roanoke checks in at 231 out of 234 teams in the division, a gap that points to a much thinner slate behind Roanoke's perfect start. This game counts in the ODAC standings, and Versus's model leans on that schedule difference heavily in its projection.
Hampden-Sydney carries a B+ overall grade with an A- offense and a B+ defense, and its power rating has climbed in each of the last four weeks, part of a run that has it ranked No. 2 in the ODAC. Roanoke, graded B overall, is 4-0 and has outscored its last four opponents by an average of 31 points, winning three of those games by 21 or more.
The two sides met last October, when Hampden-Sydney won 35-10. Versus projects a tighter finish this time, with Hampden-Sydney favored 31-24 and given a 65 percent chance to win, leaving Roanoke's unbeaten record on the line against the tougher resume.
Graded within D3, 234 teams