Air Force projected to escape Northern Illinois by four

Versus projects a 28-24 road win for Air Force, a margin of four points that puts the Falcons' win probability at 59 percent against Northern Illinois' 41. That is a tighter number than the gap between the two teams in the Mountain West Conference standings this season suggests, since the game counts toward both teams' records in that conference race.

Air Force comes in 3-1, its best start through four games since 2023, and carries a divisional rank of 85 in FBS against Northern Illinois' 134, a 49-spot difference. The Falcons are graded C- on both sides of the ball, modest marks that line up with a strength of schedule rank of 134, among the weakest in the division.

Northern Illinois is 0-4, with every loss in that stretch coming against a team with a winning record, and its power rating has slipped in each of the last four weeks. Its offensive and defensive ranks sit at 123 and 122. The one number working in the Huskies' favor is a strength of schedule rank of 22, far stronger than Air Force's, which is part of why Versus still gives the home team a 41 percent chance to pull off the upset.