Howard Payne's schedule strength, not its record, is the real story vs Nelson TX

Strength of schedule is what separates Howard Payne and Nelson TX far more than their raw ranks do. Howard Payne sits 196th out of 234 Division III teams in schedule strength despite its 3-0 start, while Nelson TX, playing in NAIA, ranks a much sturdier 48th out of 96 in that category even with a 1-3 record. The two levels meet this week with an NAIA team traveling to face a Division III host, in a non-conference game that will not affect either side's conference standing.

Howard Payne carries an A- grade in both offense and defense within Division III and has climbed to a season-best No. 65 national ranking there, also sitting third in the American Southwest Conference. Versus projects the Yellow Jackets to win 45-10, giving them a 97 percent win probability.

Nelson TX brings a D+ offense and D+ defense within NAIA and has been outscored on average over its last four games, going 1-3 in that stretch. That recent form, combined with the national rank gap between No. 367 Howard Payne and No. 634 Nelson TX, points to a lopsided result even before accounting for the difference in classification.