Nelson TX at Howard Payne Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Howard Payne by 34.63
TOTAL POINTS
55
UPDATED
Sunday, September 27, 2026
RATINGS
*Ratings are relative to Division (FBS, FCS, D2, D3, NAIA)
Nelson
Howard Payne 
|
71
C-
|
Overall |
88
B+
|
|
69
D+
|
Power |
92
A-
|
|
67
D+
|
Offensive |
93
A-
|
|
69
D+
|
Defensive |
90
A-
|
|
80
B-
|
SoS (Current) |
66
D
|
|
93
A-
|
SoS (Future) |
77
C+
|
RANKINGS
NelsonNAIA
Howard PayneD3
| 69 #634 overall |
Overall | 65 #367 overall |
| 75 #668 overall |
Power | 42 #429 overall |
| 79 #675 overall |
Offensive | 37 #408 overall |
| 73 #664 overall |
Defensive | 55 #448 overall |
| 48 #539 overall |
SoS (Current) | 196 #716 overall |
| 15 #455 overall |
SoS (Future) | 134 #563 overall |
Howard PayneD3 #6597%Nelson TXNAIA #693%Wk 5 (Sep 27), 2026-27: Howard Payne 97%, Nelson TX 3% at Howard Payne.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX is trending up — from 76% to 95% over the last 6 updates.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX is trending up — from 80% to 96% over the last 6 updates.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX is trending up — from 84% to 97% over the last 6 updates.
Howard Payne favored
Nelson TX favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | Season | At Nelson TX | Neutral | At Howard Payne |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 19 | 2025-26 | 76% | 80% | 84% |
| Wk 20 | 2025-26 | 76% | 80% | 84% |
| Wk 21 | 2025-26 | 76% | 80% | 84% |
| Pre | 2026-27 | 77% | 81% | 85% |
| Wk 1 | 2026-27 | 69% | 74% | 79% |
| Wk 2 | 2026-27 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 3 | 2026-27 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 4 | 2026-27 | 90% | 92% | 94% |
| Wk 5 | 2026-27 | 95% | 96% | 97% |
RECORDS
Nelson
Howard Payne
|
0-0 (0%) |
Head to Head |
0-0 (0%) |
|
1-3 (25%) |
Overall |
3-0 (100%) |
|
1-1 (50%) |
Home |
0-0 (0%) |
|
0-2 (0%) |
Away |
2-0 (100%) |
|
0-1 (0%) |
Versus Own Division Top 25 |
0-0 (0%) |
|
0-3 (0%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
0-0 (0%) |
|
1-0 (100%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
3-0 (100%) |
|
1-3 (25%) |
Last 5 Games |
3-0 (100%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Nelson
Howard Payne
| #667 Arkansas Baptist | Best Win | #555 Simpson IA |
| #495 MidAmerica Nazarene | Worst Loss | None |
| 7 pts vs #667 Arkansas Baptist | Largest MOV | 49 pts vs #718 Pacific OR |
| 25 pts vs #486 Texas Wesleyan | Largest MOD | None |
OTHER STATISTICS
Nelson
Howard Payne
| 18.5 | Points per Game | 46 |
| 31.8 | Points Against | 15 |
| 20.5 | Home PPG | 0 |
| 27.5 | Home PA | 0 |
| 16.5 | Away PPG | 43 |
| 36 | Away PA | 8.5 |
| 10-8 | Opponent Record | 3-8 |
| 485.8 | Avg Opponent Rank | 617.3 |
| L 2 | Longest Streak | W 3 |
| L 1 | Current Streak | W 3 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Nelson
Howard Payne
| Sep 26 | at Texas Wesleyan (2-2) | L16-41 | Sep 26 | Simpson IA (1-2) | W52-28 |
| Sep 19 | vs Arkansas Baptist (2-3) | W35-28 | Sep 19 | at Wayland Baptist (2-3) | W37-17 |
| Sep 12 | at Ottawa AZ (3-1) | L17-31 | Sep 4 | at Pacific OR (0-3) | W49-0 |
| Aug 29 | vs MidAmerica Nazarene (3-2) | L6-27 |