Nelson TX at Howard Payne Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Howard Payne by 24.95
TOTAL POINTS
55
UPDATED
Sunday, November 8, 2026
See this week's D3 predictions
RATINGS
*Ratings are relative to Division (FBS, FCS, D2, D3, NAIA)
Nelson
Howard Payne 
|
72
C-
|
Overall |
85
B
|
|
72
C-
|
Power |
91
A-
|
|
70
C-
|
Offensive |
92
A-
|
|
74
C
|
Defensive |
89
B+
|
|
93
A-
|
SoS (Current) |
86
B
|
|
83
B-
|
SoS (Full Season) |
83
B-
|
|
68
D+
|
SoR (Current) |
88
B+
|
|
69
D+
|
SoR (Full Season) |
90
A-
|
RANKINGS
NelsonNAIA
Howard PayneD3
| 66 #629 overall |
Overall | 82 #415 overall |
| 66 #611 overall |
Power | 51 #480 overall |
| 72 #634 overall |
Offensive | 42 #463 overall |
| 62 #601 overall |
Defensive | 62 #497 overall |
| 16 #468 overall |
SoS (Current) | 81 #463 overall |
| 40 #529 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 94 #496 overall |
Howard PayneD3 #8292%Nelson TXNAIA #668%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Howard Payne 92%, Nelson TX 8% at Howard Payne.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX is trending down — from 95% to 87% over the last 6 weeks.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX is trending down — from 96% to 90% over the last 6 weeks.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX is trending down — from 97% to 92% over the last 6 weeks.
Howard Payne favored
Nelson TX favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | At Nelson TX | Neutral | At Howard Payne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 77% | 81% | 85% |
| Wk 1 | 69% | 74% | 79% |
| Wk 2 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 3 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 4 | 90% | 92% | 94% |
| Wk 5 | 95% | 96% | 97% |
| Wk 6 | 96% | 97% | 97% |
| Wk 7 | 94% | 96% | 97% |
| Wk 8 | 87% | 90% | 93% |
| Wk 9 | 88% | 91% | 93% |
| Wk 10 | 91% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 11 | 87% | 90% | 92% |
RECORDS
Nelson
Howard Payne
|
0-1 (0%) |
Head to Head |
1-0 (100%) |
|
2-8 (20%) |
Overall |
5-3 (62.5%) |
|
1-5 (16.7%) |
Home |
1-1 (50%) |
|
1-3 (25%) |
Away |
3-2 (60%) |
|
0-2 (0%) |
Versus Own Division Top 25 |
0-2 (0%) |
|
0-8 (0%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
1-3 (25%) |
|
2-0 (100%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
4-0 (100%) |
|
1-4 (20%) |
Last 5 Games |
2-3 (40%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Nelson
Howard Payne
| #660 Arkansas Baptist | Best Win | #480 Wayland Baptist |
| #567 MidAmerica Nazarene | Worst Loss | #362 McMurry |
| 34 pts vs #692 Langston | Largest MOV | 49 pts vs #665 Pacific OR |
| 52 pts vs #144 Hardin-Simmons | Largest MOD | 23 pts vs #205 Mary Hardin-Baylor |
OTHER STATISTICS
Nelson
Howard Payne
| 19.5 | Points per Game | 36.1 |
| 33.4 | Points Against | 23.8 |
| 18.7 | Home PPG | 30.5 |
| 36.3 | Home PA | 19.5 |
| 20.8 | Away PPG | 35.2 |
| 29 | Away PA | 24.6 |
| 56-38 | Opponent Record | 37-34 |
| 459.5 | Avg Opponent Rank | 457.3 |
| L 6 | Longest Streak | W 4 |
| W 1 | Current Streak | L 2 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Nelson
Howard Payne
| Nov 7 | at Langston (2-7) | W34-0 | Nov 7 | at McMurry (4-4) | L39-52 |
| Oct 31 | vs Wayland Baptist (6-3) | L20-45 | Oct 31 | vs Hardin-Simmons (8-0) | L17-23 |
| Oct 24 | vs Hardin-Simmons (8-0) | L0-52 | Oct 17 | at Schreiner (3-6) | W41-21 |
| Oct 17 | vs Louisiana Christian (9-1) | L23-31 | Oct 10 | at Mary Hardin-Baylor (8-1) | L10-33 |
| Oct 10 | vs OK Panhandle St (5-5) | L28-35 | Oct 3 | vs Nelson TX (2-8) | W44-16 |
| Oct 3 | at Howard Payne (5-3) | L16-44 | Sep 26 | Simpson IA (4-5) | W52-28 |
| Sep 26 | at Texas Wesleyan (5-5) | L16-41 | Sep 19 | at Wayland Baptist (6-3) | W37-17 |
| Sep 19 | vs Arkansas Baptist (2-9) | W35-28 | Sep 4 | at Pacific OR (2-7) | W49-0 |
| Sep 12 | at Ottawa AZ (8-1) | L17-31 | |||
| Aug 29 | vs MidAmerica Nazarene (6-4) | L6-27 |