D3 · Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic ConferenceConference game
Carleton's ratings outrun its record heading to Macalester
Final
Carleton48-45Macalester
Versus called the winner. The projected margin was off by 9 points.
Carleton#6675%
Macalester#15325%Wk 3 (Sep 13), 2026-27: Carleton 75%, Macalester 25% at Macalester.
Carleton's win probability against Macalester is trending down — from 90% to 75% over the last 6 updates.
Carleton's win probability against Macalester is trending down — from 92% to 79% over the last 6 updates.
Carleton's win probability against Macalester is trending down — from 94% to 83% over the last 6 updates.
A 0-1 record usually means trouble, but Carleton's profile says otherwise. The Knights carry a B+ overall grade and a 116th-place power rank in D3, both built on a schedule ranked 3rd in strength nationally within the division, while Macalester sits at 1-0 with a C grade and a power rank of 173 after facing one of the softer slates in D3 at 224th.
Versus projects Carleton to win 34-22, and the numbers back that up beyond the raw records. Carleton's offense grades out at B- with a rank of 100, and even its C+ defense ranks well ahead of Macalester's, which sits 171st. The Knights have also been trending upward, improving their power rating in each of the last three weeks, and their most recent win was their most lopsided since November 2025.
This one counts in the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference standings. History leans toward Carleton as well, with six straight wins in the series and Macalester without a victory over the Knights since September 2019. Versus gives Carleton a 75 percent chance to extend that streak on the road.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
