Southern Illinois leans on series history and defense to edge Indiana State

Southern Illinois has owned this series, winning 11 of 17 meetings since 2007 and taking four of the last five by a wide average margin, so there is recent precedent for the Salukis to lean on heading into Saturday's Missouri Valley Football Conference game, which counts in the league standings for both sides.

The numbers complicate the history a bit. Southern Illinois sits at 4-5 and has actually slid 12 spots in the Versus FCS rankings this season, down to 31st, though every one of those five losses has come against a team with a winning record, and the Salukis showed they can still beat ranked opponents by knocking off No. 25 Northern Iowa last month. Versus grades them A- overall with an A defense, 16th in FCS, which is the strength they will lean on against Indiana State's offense.

Indiana State enters at 2-7 and 71st in FCS, but the Sycamores carry a 26th ranked, A- offense of their own, undercut by a defense that ranks 49th and has been part of a five-game losing streak marked by lopsided scores. That imbalance, paired with a 1-3 mark in one-score games, is why Versus still favors Southern Illinois, projecting a 29-26 result and a 58 percent win probability for the Salukis in a game that figures to come down to which offense its defense can actually support.