Ithaca projected to edge RPI by just four points in Liberty League test

Versus gives Ithaca a 59 percent chance to beat RPI, with a projected score of 30-26, making this one of the tighter calls on the Liberty League slate this week. Both programs carry matching A- overall grades, and their offensive units are graded identically at A, so the four-point margin reflects how little separates them on paper heading into a game that counts in the conference standings.

RPI arrives at 6-2 and ranked 37th in Division III, five spots ahead of Ithaca at 42nd, and has been one of the most dominant closers in the league, winning 6 of 8 games by 21 points or more while holding opponents at least 25 percent below their scoring average in six of those contests. Ithaca counters at 7-1 with a power grade of A, the better of the two, and has been surging, winning its last five games while piling up similarly lopsided margins of its own.

The series has been even over time at 4-4, but Ithaca has won the last four meetings and RPI has not beaten the Bombers since October 2022. With strength of schedule ranks that favor RPI's resume more than Ithaca's, the game projects as competitive, but Versus still leans on Ithaca's recent form and home field to decide a four-point margin.