Dubuque projected to end skid against Coe with 28-23 road win

Versus projects Dubuque to beat Coe 28-23, a five-point margin that would hand the Spartans their first win in the series since November 2023. That number matters here because Dubuque has not scored more than 20 points against Coe since October 2021, and Coe has taken three straight meetings. The model's projected 28 would break that pattern outright.

Both teams arrive playing their best football of the year. Dubuque has outscored its last five opponents by an average of 19 points while going 4-1, and the Spartans have won four of their eight games this season by 21 points or more. Coe has matched that kind of form recently too, winning its last five games outright and also claiming four of its eight contests this season by 21 points or more. The grades favor Dubuque within D3, an A- overall against Coe's B+, with every underlying category from offense to defense also graded a notch higher for the Spartans.

The gap that stands out is strength of schedule. Dubuque sits 64th in D3 there, while Coe ranks 156th despite a better overall record at 6-2 to Dubuque's 5-3. This game counts in the American Rivers Conference standings, and with Coe's resume built against lighter competition, a true test against a tougher-scheduled opponent is exactly what Versus's model is flagging.