NFL Week 8: One Prop Pick for Every Game
We had so much fun with this in week one, we’re back at it again for a midseason version. For Sunday and Monday’s games I’ll pick one prop bet I like from each game and give you the reason why it’s a (hopefully) good, and at the very least, fun play. For all action, we’ll be going off the numbers found on FanDuel.
Miami (1-6) at Atlanta (3-3)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. (EST) TV: CBS FanDuel line: Atlanta -7.5 VSS line: Atlanta -12.51
The bet: Atlanta defense anytime touchdown (+550)
Some long odds here right off the bat, but Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has done a poor job taking care of the ball this season with 10 interceptions, including three each in losses to the Browns and Chargers. As up and down as Atlanta’s season has been so far this season on offense, the defense has quietly put together a solid season and ranks amongst the best in the league in pressure rate. Without Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller in the lineup and with Jaylen Waddle hobbled by multiple injuries, the Falcons can ramp up the pressure on Tua without much consequence. A defensive touchdown doesn’t seem unlikely with that scenario.
Buffalo (4-2) at Carolina (4-3)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Buffalo -7.5 VSS line: Buffalo -0.28
The bet: Tetairoa McMillan anytime touchdown (+185)
The simulator likes this game to be closer than Vegas does. And if Carolina is going to keep it close against Buffalo in Charlotte, the playmakers are going to have to shine. Rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan is Bryce Young’s favorite target and will undoubtedly get an end zone shot when the Panthers are within striking distance.
New York Jets (0-7) at Cincinnati (3-4)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Cincinnati -6.5 VSS line: Cincinnati -1.90
The bet: Total score – under 44.5
I don’t know what the final score will be – but I do know that I don’t trust the Jets offense to score more than 14 points, and even that is pushing it. There aren’t very many props available with this one yet because the Jets starting quarterback is unknown. Will it be Tyrod Taylor? Is Justin Fields still the starter? It doesn’t matter. Neither will move the ball against the Bengals.
Cleveland (2-5) at New England (5-2)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: New England -7 VSS line: New England -10.28
The bet: Player rushing yards – Rhamondre Stevenson under 50.5 (-114)
Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball a season-high 18 times for a season-high 88 yards in last week’s win over Tennessee. With Antonio Gibson out and TreVeyon Henderson seemingly not ready, the performance could possibly be a signal that he’s ready to break out as New England’s lead back. But let’s pump the brakes a little bit here. Tennessee is, well, Tennessee. And the Cleveland Browns are actually pretty solid against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry this season. A regression to the mean makes sense here.
New York Giants (2-5) at Philadelphia (5-2)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Philadelphia -7.5 VSS line: Philadelphia -8.77
The bet: Player total passing touchdowns – Jalen Hurts over 1.5 (+116)
The reigning Super Bowl champions haven’t looked great at times this season, but at 5-2 the Eagles are still one of the league’s most dangerous teams. The 34-17 smack down that the Giants put on them just two weeks ago is most certainly fresh on the team’s mind, and Philadelphia will be out for revenge. A.J. Brown won’t be available, but Hurts will find a way to make it happen regardless.
Chicago (4-2) at Baltimore (1-5)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Baltimore -6.5 VSS line: Baltimore -0.29
The bet: Player total passing touchdowns – Caleb Williams over 1.5 (+114)
This is a last minute change to what I originally wrote, which was before Lamar Jackson was ruled out. Had he played, we would have gone with the over on his rushing yards. In his absence, the Ravens will continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, and Caleb Williams will have the type of day that Chicago drafted him to have. Rome Odunze will be on the receiving end of at least one of them.
San Francisco (5-2) at Houston (2-4)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Houston -1.5 VSS line: Houston -7.44
The bet: Player total rushing + receiving yards – Christian McCaffrey over 115.5 (-114)
The line in this one feels like a sucker bet. I know San Francisco has injuries, but they’ve beaten and played well against much better teams than the Texans. Houston’s defense might rank at the top of the NFL, but it’ll still struggle to contain McCaffrey, particularly if the offense can’t stay on the field and extend drives against the 49ers defense.
Tampa Bay (5-2) at New Orleans (1-6)
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Tampa Bay -4.5 VSS line: Tampa Bay -8.01
The bet: Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown (-105)
It has been a couple weeks since rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka has reached the end zone. The Saints have given up an average of two passing touchdowns per game. This seems like the right time for Baker Mayfield to find his favorite target for the sixth time this season.
Dallas (3-3-1) at Denver (5-2)
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Denver -3.5 VSS line: Denver -3.25
The bet: Alternate rushing yards – J.K. Dobbins 90 or more yards (+174)
On the surface this play feels a touch riskier than the 1.74:1 odds that are being given as J.K. Dobbins has only eclipsed 90 yards on the ground once this season. However, the Cowboys have the second worst rush defense in the league to this point in the year, allowing 141 yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt. There will be plenty of opportunities for Dobbins to gash the defense for large chunks of yardage all game long.
Tennessee (1-6) at Indianapolis (6-1)
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Indianapolis -14.5 VSS line: Indianapolis -23.33
The bet: Interception – Cam Ward yes (-168)
I truly feel bad for Cam Ward this season as the rookie is an absolute no-win situation as the Titans quarterback. He hasn’t thrown for many touchdowns (4), has a passer rating (70.9) that puts him near the bottom of the league and a QBR of 24.0, 30 points below the league average. The Colts have nine interceptions this season and are near the top of the league in quarterback pressures and knockdowns. The odds of Indianapolis rattling Ward into a bad decision are high.
Green Bay (4-1-1) at Pittsburgh (4-2)
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. TV: NBC FanDuel line: Green Bay -3 VSS line: Green Bay -2.37
The bet: Player longest reception – DK Metcalf over 22.5 yards (-110)
Aaron Rodgers will do whatever it takes to make his former team look silly. He’ll likely make a bad mistake or two in the process, but he’ll certainly look to take multiple deep shots to his best target, DK Metcalf. It could come early, or it could come late, but there’s a 25-yard catch sitting out there for Metcalf.
Washington (3-4) at Kansas City (4-3)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m., Mon TV: ESPN FanDuel line: KC -11.5 VSS line: KC -11.78
The bet: Special – Jacory Croskey-Merritt to record 5+ rushing yards in each quarter (+210)
The good news for Washington is that barring setbacks, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel both appear ready to go come Monday night. The bad news – it’s Marcus Mariota and not Jayden Daniels under center taking snaps. Washington isn’t going to ask Mariota to throw the ball a ton in a tough road game. Rather, they’re more likely to try and win the battle up front and find their top targets later. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has seen his role continue to increase week after week, and he’ll have significant opportunities to carry the offense on Monday night. There’s a concern that if the game gets out of hand he could be pulled in the second half, or Jeremy McNichols could see more passing down work, but we’re going to stay positive for now.
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Jonathan Howard, Sports Analyst
Jonathan Howard is a veteran sports writer from Richmond, Virginia. His work has been featured in newspapers such as the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post and The Virginian-Pilot. He enjoys cheering for his alma mater - VCU - and playing golf when time allows.