NFL Week 5: Four Games to Watch

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
October 3, 2025

Denver (2-2) at Philadelphia (4-0)

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Philadelphia -4.5 VSS line: Philadelphia -7.02

Denver appeared to get some mojo back last week, recovering from back-to-back road defeats via last-second field goal to beat the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals 28-3. But the positive momentum and good vibes from that game are immediately going to be tested when the Broncos fly to Philadelphia to face the undefeated Eagles. The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t exactly looked like last year’s team, with Saquon Barkley averaging only 3.1 yards per carry and a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against the run and only slightly better against the pass. But, regardless of how the picture has been painted this season, the result has always been the same.

Denver has a lot of questions to answer in this one, and most of it comes on the offensive side of the ball. The NFL’s third rated defense is capable of keeping the Broncos in games, but is Bo Nix capable of a consistent effort? So far he’s alternated hot and cold games and has already turned the ball over five times. The answer to beating the Eagles, however, could lie with making room for running back J.K. Dobbins, who is currently fourth in the NFL with 323 rushing yards (80.8 ypg). Philadelphia is giving up 126 ground yards per game so far this season. If the Broncos can control the clock with the running game rather than having to lean on Nix, they’ve got a shot at their first road win of the season.

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Seattle (3-1)

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Seattle -3 VSS line: Seattle -11.35

Good news for Tampa Bay – as of Thursday, it looks like Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin will be able to suit up against Seattle. Bad news for Tampa Bay – Mike Evans and Bucky Irving don’t look likely, nor do three members of the defensive secondary in Jamel Dean, Benjamin Morrison, and Christian Izien. All told, it could be a long day for Tampa, as it goes up against the NFL’s second-ranked defense and a quarterback in Sam Darnold who leads the NFL in yards per completion (12.9). With so much of the Bucs secondary missing, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, second to only Puka Nacua at 100.5 receiving yards per game, could have an absolutely massive night.

This one carries a fun story line at quarterback, as three quarterbacks expected to be active on Sunday all spent time under center for the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay backup Teddy Bridgewater started 15 games for the Panthers in 2020 while Mayfield and Darnold were on the same depth chart in 2022 and are still friends.

New England (2-2) at Buffalo (4-0)

Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. TV: NBC FanDuel line: Buffalo -8.5 VSS line: Buffalo -7.42

For years the New England Patriots dominated the AFC East (and the NFL) while Buffalo, Miami and the New York Jets all fought to stay relevant. Now the Bills find themselves on top of the mess that is the AFC East with the Patriots trying to climb back to their past glory. While it’s likely way too early to have any real expectations, New England has shown signs of life with Drake Maye under center. The second-year quarterback leads the NFL in completion percentage (74 percent) through four weeks and is in the top 10 in passing yards (988) and touchdowns (7).

But while Maye has performed well, his offensive line is still shaky. He’s been sacked 13 times already at a rate of 9.56 percent of pass attempts. Those numbers don’t bode well against Buffalo, which has the NFL’s leading pass defense. The Bills don’t have the most sacks, tackles for loss or interceptions so far this year, but what they do have is a pressure rate of 28.5 percent. Against a second-tier offensive line, Buffalo will be able to convert that pressure into hurried throws and sacks, meaning Maye will be forced to look to check down more and scan the field less.

While the Patriots have been good against the run so far this season (3.3 ypc), the same can not be said against the pass. Josh Allen has spread the ball around fairly evenly between receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer, tight end Dalton Kincaid and running James Cook. Three of them could find the end zone against New England.

Kansas City (2-2) at Jacksonville (3-1)

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m., Mon TV: ESPN FanDuel line: Kansas City -3 VSS line: Kansas City -4.26

After back-to-back wins over the New York Giants and Baltimore, anyone leaving the Chiefs for dead following an 0-2 start was surely disappointed. But a trip to Jacksonville could give us a bit more insight into the state of the Chiefs than those games did. While Kansas City easily handled Baltimore, the Ravens have been extremely disappointing with Lamar Jackson being pressured at an alarming rate and the defense at the bottom of the NFL. Jacksonville provides a much different challenge this week, as it leads the league with 13 forced turnovers, including nine interceptions.

But while Patrick Mahomes currently has the lowest completion percentage of his career (it’s still four games into the season, this will undoubtedly change), what he hasn’t done is turn the ball over. He’s only thrown one interception and his sack rate is below five percent. So while the Jaguars might have turned a fresh-off-injury Brock Purdy (now injured again) over multiple times last week, the same can’t be expected against Mahomes. Mahomes also has the benefit of another full week working with Xavier Worthy after his return from injury.

I expect this one to come down to how the Jaguars offense handles the Chiefs defense. We’ve seen Trevor Lawrence have flashes of brilliance followed by moments of panic. But Travis Etienne’s league-leading 6.1 yards per carry and 98.5 yards per game (third best) are enough to give the Chiefs fits while trying to get the ball back in the hands of the offense.

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Free 2025 NFL Player Props

Week 5 is here, and key matchups feature playoff-contending teams like Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. Versus Sports Simulator offers free NFL player prop projections for 2025, including passing, rushing, and receiving stats. Before betting on stars like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, J.K. Dobbins, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, check our projections to see how they’re expected to perform this week.

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