NFL Week 1 Best Bets: One Prop Pick for Every Game

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
September 6, 2025

The NFL’s opening week didn’t disappoint on Thursday or Friday night and I think I can confidently say we’re all hoping for the same level of entertainment from the weekend and Monday night slate. In celebration of week one, I’m going through every game and giving you one prop bet I love, and why. For all action, we’ll be going off the numbers found on FanDuel.

New York Giants at Washington

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Washington -6.5 VSS line: Washington -14.28

The bet: Game special – Deebo Samuel to record 25+ yards receiving in each half (+310)

Washington did not acquire Deebo Samuel to NOT put the ball in his hands. Paired with Terry McLaurin’s lack of preseason work because of his hold out/hold in, it’s a perfect recipe for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to dial up multiple looks designed for Samuel early and often. Samuel could easily take a pop pass or shovel pass the distance once in either half and cash the bet. While the simulator loves Washington to run away with this one, I think a two-touchdown spread is likely to occur late in the game rather than early, giving Samuel more time to get touches as a receiver.

Carolina at Jacksonville

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Jacksonville -3.5 VSS line: Jacksonville -6.55

The bet: Player rushing + receiving yards – Chuba Hubbard over 73.5 (-112)

Bettors are going to flock to Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter bets, but I’m going to go with what I know – as bad as the Panthers have been, and might still be, Chuba Hubbard is typically a bright spot. There’s a lot of excitement in Jacksonville right now and I think they’ll easily win the battle of 1995 expansion teams – but Hubbard is going to get plenty of touches for the Panthers, and he’ll make good on the yardage.

Pittsburgh at New York Jets

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Pittsburgh -2.5 VSS line: Pittsburgh -6.78

The bet: Passing yards – Justin Fields under 173.5 (-114)

I don’t think Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is a vindictive man – but I do think he is going to make sure he doesn’t get beaten by a quarterback that he couldn’t make work in his own system. Justin Fields played in 10 games for the Steelers a year ago, accounting for nearly 1,400 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, but lost his starting spot to Russell Wilson. Additionally, Pittsburgh has never been afraid to play a game ugly. All said, I just don’t see a nice passing day coming from Fields. On the other hand, I DO think Aaron Rodgers is vindictive, and playing the over on his passing yards against his former team is also a solid play.

Las Vegas at New England

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: New England -2.5 VSS line: New England -5.08

The bet: Player passing touchdowns – Drake Maye over 1.5 (+122)

The excitement is with Jayden Daniels, the pressure lies with Caleb Williams and the intrigue is still alive with J.J. McCarthy after missing last season with injuries. When it comes to second-year quarterback storylines, Drake Maye is currently taking a backseat. However, Maye proved himself to be a very solid quarterback for the Patriots last year despite its horrible season. And while it’s hard to see the Patriots making a drastic leap this year, it’s not hard to see the new coaching staff giving Maye the keys and telling him to go to work. He’ll have the opportunity immediately, and I think he’ll hit the over in the first half.

Arizona at New Orleans

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Arizona -6.5 VSS line: Arizona -7.4

The bet: Alternate spread – Arizona -9.5 (+150)

As I’ve typed this, I’ve tried my best to be as respectful to New Orleans as I can. There is so little to be excited about … I just don’t have any confidence in a close game. Give me the Cardinals by two scores.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Cincinnati -5.5 VSS line: Cincinnati -8.48

The bet: Alternate Receiving yards – Ja’Marr Chase 100+ yards (+152)

Last season Ja’Marr Chase started slow after holding out, and the team suffered. The Bengals are NOT going to let that happen again. Chase and Tee Higgins might both go over 100 yards here. Burrow is going to throw the ball early and often, and Chase is going to be a major beneficiary. Lock it in.

Miami at Indianapolis

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Indianapolis -1.5 VSS line: Indianapolis -1.03

The bet: Player total receptions – Tyler Warren over 3.5 (-148)

Immediate side note – tough look here for Miami being an underdog to a team that had to turn to Daniel Jones as its starting quarterback. However, Jones has one of the better young tight end targets in the game. Warren isn’t going to challenge Brock Bowers as the best tight end in the league, but he’s strong and reliable and will get plenty of looks early as a safety valve, particularly if Miami chooses to bring pressure and Jonathan Taylor has to stay in and block.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Tampa Bay -1.5 VSS line: Tampa Bay -3.74

The bet: Anytime touchdown scorer – Kyle Pitts (+250)

This is going to be the ultimate fantasy football tease. There are a lot of obvious players who might score a touchdown in this game – Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and Drake London to name a few. But Kyle Pitts is going to give thousands of people hope by snagging a touchdown pass here in week one … and never be heard from again.

Tennessee at Denver

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Denver -8.5 VSS line: Denver -16.09

The bet: Player passing yards – Cam Ward under 190.5 (-114)

Don’t get me wrong, I like Cam Ward and think he’s got a solid future ahead of him in Tennessee. But on the road at Denver in week one is as worst-case scenario as it could get for a rookie quarterback leading a rebuilding team. The simulator absolutely loves Denver in a smash spot here, and I agree. Ward isn’t going to have a lot of clean looks here in his first start, and his yardage will suffer.

San Francisco at Seattle

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: San Francisco -1.5 VSS line: Seattle -5.21

The bet: Player rushing + receiving yards – Christian McCaffrey under 98.5 (-112)

I don’t care if McCaffrey says he feels good – he’s listed as questionable because of a calf issue. Assuming he’s ultimately cleared to play, San Francisco simply isn’t going to overload him in week one just to see him end up out for extended time. I think there are a lot of situations where we might see him later on in the season where Brian Robinson and Issac Guerendo end up getting the touch, or simply the snap instead. Unless he breaks a long run or takes a screen pass for a long gain, I don’t think he’s coming anywhere close until he can get through a week fully healthy.

Detroit at Green Bay

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Green Bay -2.5 VSS line: Green Bay -1.41

The bet: Player rushing yards – Jahmyr Gibbs over 67.5 (-114)

Detroit has the same weapons from a year ago, but without Ben Johnson calling the plays on offense. Will Jared Goff and the passing game still be as effective? That remains to be seen. But what we do know is that Gibbs is one of the best running backs in the league and will get plenty of opportunities to touch the rock and establish the offense to open up the passing game. I predict a big run early to knock out a large chunk of this before halftime.

Houston at Los Angeles

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Los Angeles -3 VSS line: Los Angeles -4.4

The bet: FanDuel game special – Kyren Williams and Nick Chubb to each record 5+ rushing yards in each quarter (+800)

A few years ago it would seem absolutely crazy for Nick Chubb to be involved in this kind of bet. Unfortunately, the injury bug has really hampered his production and reputation over the past few seasons. For Chubb, this is week one of a four-week audition to prove that he’s still RB1 quality while Joe Mixon makes his way back from injury. By all accounts he’s looked the part in practice leading up to the season – it’s just a matter of doing it. The Houston running back depth chart isn’t exactly inspiring, so if he can get going early, he has the opportunity to be the lead back throughout. As long as Houston can keep it close, Williams will be in the game in the fourth quarter to hold up his end of the bargain.

Baltimore at Buffalo

Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. TV: NBC FanDuel line: Baltimore -1.5 VSS line: Buffalo -1.12

The bet: Anytime touchdown scorer – Lamar Jackson (+200)

This isn’t a playoff game, so a solid performance won’t change the reputation of the two-time MVP winner, but Lamar Jackson is going to come out ready to make a statement in this battle of AFC heavyweights. In a game that could easily turn into a shootout, Jackson scrambling for a 10-yard touchdown run, or sniping a goal line touchdown seems like an easy bet.

Minnesota at Chicago

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m., Monday TV: ESPN FanDuel line: Minnesota -1.5 VSS line: Minnesota -3.39

The bet: Player passing touchdowns – Caleb Williams over 1.5 (+116)

After a tumultuous rookie season, Caleb Williams showed some improvement, with plenty of room for growth during the 2025 preseason. An NFC North rivalry against one of the league’s best teams is a tough way to start the regular season – but new head coach Ben Johnson is going to give his new quarterback every opportunity to prove himself. Even if this game gets out of hand, I see Williams still letting it fly in the fourth quarter as he continues to get comfortable in Johnson’s offense. In that regard, this one seems like a slam dunk.

---

Free 2025 NFL Player Props

Following along with the biggest matchups of Week 1? Versus Sports Simulator now publishes free NFL prop bet projections for 2025, covering passing yards, rushing totals, receiving props, and lots of other predictions. If you’re betting on players like Justin Fields, Ja’Marr Chase, or Lamar Jackson, our props page gives you a data-driven look at how stars are expected to perform each week.

Passing Props Rushing Props Receiving Props