Predicting the 2026 Final Four: Key Data Insights for NCAA Tournament Success (Opinion)

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
March 18, 2026

Last season, I used power rankings, as well as offensive and defensive rankings, to identify potential Final Four teams ahead of the men’s NCAA Tournament. Using historical data from the Versus Sports Simulator, I found the common traits of teams participating in the tournament’s final weekend and came up with 14 possibilities.

We’re starting a little later here, with a set tournament field – but I once again use the data, then try to narrow it down even more to make predictions. NOTE: This is not the official Versus Sports Simulator prediction. I’m merely using its data.

What Do Past Final Four Teams Have in Common?

Using Versus Sports Simulator numbers going back to 2015, Final Four teams had an average Versus power ranking of about 10, an average offensive ranking of about 31, and an average defensive ranking of about 32. Rankings as of the week of the tournament’s first round were used in this study.

Who Qualifies?

Versus Power Ranking – Top 20

Teams that qualify: Arizona, Duke, Michigan, Houston, UConn, Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Gonzaga, Iowa State, St. John's, Michigan State, Nebraska, Arkansas, Illinois, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee

Versus Offense Ranking – Top 62

Teams that qualify: Arizona, Duke, Michigan, UConn, Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Gonzaga, Iowa State, St. John’s, Michigan State, Arkansas, Illinois, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee

Who is out: Houston, Nebraska

Versus Defense Rating – Top 68

Teams that qualify: Arizona, Duke, Michigan, UConn, Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Gonzaga, Iowa State, St. John’s, Michigan State, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee

Who is out: Arkansas, Alabama

Which Teams are Left?

After analyzing the data, here are the remaining teams, along with their Versus Power Ranking (PR), Offensive Ranking (OR), and Defensive Ranking (DR):

• Michigan: PR: 1 | OR: 3 | DR: 14
• Duke: PR: 2 | OR: 28 | DR: 2
• Arizona: PR: 3 | OR: 5 | DR: 13
• Florida: PR: 4 | OR: 9 | DR: 20
• Iowa State: PR: 5 | OR: 30 | DR: 4
• Illinois: PR: 7 | OR: 12 | DR: 22
• Purdue: PR: 8 | OR: 15 | DR: 19
• Gonzaga: PR: 9 | OR: 22 | DR: 16
• Michigan State: PR: 10 | OR: 41 | DR: 10
• Louisville: PR: 11 | OR: 11 | DR: 35
• Vanderbilt: PR: 12 | OR: 8 | DR: 44
• UConn: PR: 13 | OR: 62 | DR: 3
• St. John’s: PR: 15 | OR: 24 | DR: 23
• Tennessee: PR: 17 | OR: 61 | DR: 6
• Texas Tech: PR: 18 | OR: 29 | DR: 25
• Virginia: PR: 19 | OR: 38 | DR: 21

Let’s Trim Some Fat

Out of 20 teams I was only able to knock four of them out by metrics alone. But, let’s be honest here. Some of these names simply don’t belong. We’ll start by eliminating Louisville, which has shown a lot of firepower, but has struggled away from the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals finished the season 8-8 on the road or in neutral settings, with six of those wins coming against teams that missed the tournament. More importantly, freshman sensation Mikel Brown (18.2 ppg, 4.7 apg) is out for at least the opening weekend of the tournament with an injury.

Along the same lines, we’re going to remove Tennessee, which has dropped four of its last six contests – including two to Vanderbilt. The Volunteers were also very average away from Knoxville, finishing 8-8 in road and neutral contests.

Finally, we’ll take out Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are without leading scorer JT Toppin (21.8 ppg), who tore his ACL on Feb. 17 in a road loss to Arizona State. Texas Tech actually responded with three straight wins in the aftermath of the injury, including a road victory against Iowa State. However, they’ve since cooled off, losing three consecutive games heading into the tournament.

Classifying the Remaining Teams

After the fat trim, we’re down to 13 teams, and still, some are much better than others. We’re going to put the remaining squads into three categories: favorites, contenders, and wildcards.

Favorites

• Michigan
• Arizona
• Florida

The team(s) that are missing from this list are certainly going to turn more heads than the teams that are in it. We’ll address the most glaring omission in the next session, but not seeing Houston – who was eliminated by offensive power ranking outside the top 62 – is likely jarring for some.

Of this group, only Arizona won its conference tournament, but Michigan and Florida have proven themselves dominant all season. And let us not forget – Florida is defending its title.

Of the one seeds, Michigan might have the easiest path, with Georgia and Saint Louis showing to be flawed teams and Texas Tech, without J.T. Toppin, looming in the Sweet 16.

Contenders

• Duke
• Illinois
• Michigan State
• UConn
• Gonzaga

Yes – Duke has been left out of the favorites list. Are the Blue Devils the top overall seed? Yes. Is Cameron Boozer likely to be named Player of the Year by everyone? Also yes. Do they have an easy path into the Final Four? Absolutely not.

At least for now, the Blue Devils are without starting point guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba. If both players are able to return, Duke will get an immediate shot in the arm. Without them, the Blue Devils have less depth against what is a very unfavorable region. UConn and Michigan State both loom in the bracket – as does St. John’s, which won the Big East regular season by multiple games over UConn in addition to winning the conference tournament. And, while they’re not mentioned in this list otherwise, we can’t forget about Kansas, which has shown the ability to play big-game hunter this season as well. All this to say, the East region could be bloody, with the winner having to scrap extra hard to win it.

Wildcards

• Iowa State
• Purdue
• Vanderbilt
• St. John’s
• Virginia

Of this group, I’ve got the least confidence in Virginia. The Cavaliers played well enough to be the ACC’s second best team, but something about the ACC Final gives me pause. UVA faced a tired Duke squad, playing without two starters, and held Cameron Boozer to one of his worst offensive performances of the season. Regardless, the Cavaliers weren’t able to make it over the hump as Duke won the tournament.

On the other hand, St. John’s, despite winning the Big East by multiple games and blowing out UConn in the tournament final, drew only a five seed and has a chance to inflict damage in the East Region playing out of position. Vanderbilt started the season 16-0 before hitting a rough spot – but blew out Florida in the SEC semis to show they still have a puncher’s chance. Iowa State nearly beat Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament while Purdue outdueled Michigan to win the Big 10. It cannot be overlooked that the Boilermakers started the season ranked number one in the AP poll. There’s reason to believe they can be the best. Purdue also had fewer losses in away and neutral games (three) than it did at home (five) – showing they’re able to handle the limelight in big games.

Final Thoughts: Predicting the Final Four

If you liked big name teams, the 2025 Final Four was perfect with all four number one seeds making it to the tournament’s last weekend. This year you could make an argument for picking teams the exact same way as Duke, Florida, Michigan and Arizona have proven to be extremely strong teams with few slip ups and plenty of defining victories. However, as mentioned above, the East Region is the hardest to predict.

In a tournament full of teams capable of winning it all, it’s got the most iron sharpens iron type of matchups. Getting the ultimate champion from that part of the bracket will be a feather in your cap.

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