Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: Northwestern 66%, Illinois St 34% at Northwestern.
Northwestern's win probability against Illinois St has held at 53% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Northwestern's win probability against Illinois St has held at 60% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Northwestern's win probability against Illinois St has held at 66% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.