Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: South Carolina 73%, Duke 27% at Duke.
South Carolina's win probability against Duke has swung between 73% and 78% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 73% now.
South Carolina's win probability against Duke has held at 78% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
South Carolina's win probability against Duke has held at 83% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.