Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Cincinnati
Baltimore
|
73
C-
|
Overall |
80
B-
|
|
63
D-
|
Power |
75
C
|
|
67
D+
6099
|
Offensive |
82
B-
6099
|
|
Cincinnati
6099
Baltimore
6099
|
||
|
63
D-
6099
|
Defensive |
73
C-
6099
|
|
Cincinnati
6099
Baltimore
6099
|
||
|
99
A+
|
SoS (Current) |
82
B-
|
|
99
A+
|
SoS (Full Season) |
82
B-
|
Cincinnati
Baltimore
| 20 | Overall | 15 |
| 28 | Power | 19 |
| 25 | Offensive | 14 |
| 28 | Defensive | 20 |
| 1 | SoS (Current) | 14 |
| 1 | SoS (Full Season) | 14 |
Wk 32 (Oct 30), 2026: Baltimore 53%, Cincinnati 47% at Cincinnati.
Baltimore's win probability against Cincinnati has held at 53% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Baltimore's win probability against Cincinnati has held at 55% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Baltimore's win probability against Cincinnati has held at 58% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
| Week | At Cincinnati | Neutral | At Baltimore |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | 48% | 50% | 53% |
| Wk 4 | 50% | 53% | 55% |
| Wk 5 | 46% | 48% | 51% |
| Wk 6 | 43% | 46% | 49% |
| Wk 7 | 47% | 50% | 52% |
| Wk 8 | 46% | 49% | 51% |
| Wk 9 | 44% | 47% | 50% |
| Wk 10 | 48% | 50% | 53% |
| Wk 11 | 52% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 12 | 54% | 57% | 59% |
| Wk 13 | 51% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 14 | 51% | 53% | 56% |
| Wk 15 | 50% | 53% | 55% |
| Wk 16 | 49% | 52% | 55% |
| Wk 17 | 50% | 53% | 55% |
| Wk 18 | 51% | 54% | 56% |
| Wk 19 | 51% | 54% | 56% |
| Wk 20 | 49% | 52% | 54% |
| Wk 21 | 50% | 52% | 55% |
| Wk 22 | 51% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 23 | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Wk 24 | 52% | 54% | 57% |
| Wk 25 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 26 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 27 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 28 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 29 | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Wk 30 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 31 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
| Wk 32 | 53% | 55% | 58% |
Cincinnati
Baltimore
|
1-2 (33.3%) |
Head to Head |
2-1 (66.7%) |
|
75-87 (46.3%) |
Overall |
78-82 (48.8%) |
|
38-43 (46.9%) |
Home |
38-42 (47.5%) |
|
37-44 (45.7%) |
Away |
40-40 (50%) |
|
12-20 (37.5%) |
Versus Top 5 |
14-20 (41.2%) |
|
36-52 (40.9%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
29-46 (38.7%) |
|
39-35 (52.7%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
49-36 (57.6%) |
|
4-6 (40%) |
Last 10 Games |
6-4 (60%) |
Cincinnati
Baltimore
| #1 Milwaukee | Best Win | #2 LA Dodgers |
| #30 Colorado | Worst Loss | #30 Colorado |
| 14 runs vs #18 Washington | Largest MOV | 12 runs vs #17 St. Louis |
| 20 runs vs #1 Milwaukee | Largest MOD | 16 runs vs #9 Boston |
Cincinnati
Baltimore
| 4.1 | Runs per Game | 4.5 |
| 5.1 | Runs Against | 4.6 |
| 4 | Home RPG | 4.2 |
| 4.7 | Home RA | 4.4 |
| 4.2 | Away RPG | 4.7 |
| 5.5 | Away RA | 4.9 |
| 13724-13017 | Opponent Record | 13352-13072 |
| 13.4 | Avg Opponent Rank | 15.1 |
| L 8 | Longest Streak | W 7 |
| L 1 | Current Streak | L 1 |
Cincinnati
Baltimore
| Sep 27 | at Toronto (79-83) | L1-5 | Sep 25 | at #5 NY Yankees (95-71) | L3-6 |
| Sep 26 | at Toronto (79-83) | W5-1 | Sep 25 | at #5 NY Yankees (95-71) | W10-2 |
| Sep 25 | at Toronto (79-83) | L5-6 | Sep 23 | vs Toronto (79-83) | W4-2 |
| Sep 24 | at #4 Atlanta (97-72) | W7-6 | Sep 21 | vs Toronto (79-83) | W4-3 |
| Sep 23 | at #4 Atlanta (97-72) | L2-3 | Sep 20 | vs #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L0-3 |
| Sep 22 | at #4 Atlanta (97-72) | W4-0 | Sep 19 | vs #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L0-1 |
| Sep 20 | vs Chi Cubs (89-75) | L1-9 | Sep 18 | vs #1 Milwaukee (114-61) | L5-6 |
| Sep 19 | vs Chi Cubs (89-75) | L2-5 | Sep 16 | at NY Mets (74-88) | W7-1 |
| Sep 18 | vs Chi Cubs (89-75) | W6-4 | Sep 15 | at NY Mets (74-88) | W7-5 |
| Sep 17 | vs #2 LA Dodgers (103-67) | L2-8 | Sep 14 | at NY Mets (74-88) | W2-1 |