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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Virginia 63%, Stanford 37% at Stanford.
Virginia's win probability against Stanford is trending down — from 66% to 63% over the last 6 updates.
Virginia's win probability against Stanford has swung between 70% and 75% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 70% now.
Virginia's win probability against Stanford has swung between 76% and 81% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 76% now.