Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: S Illinois 51%, Liberty 49% at a neutral site.
S Illinois' win probability against Liberty has held at 44% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
S Illinois' win probability against Liberty has held at 51% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
S Illinois' win probability against Liberty has held at 59% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.