Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: S Illinois 54%, Drake 46% at Drake.
S Illinois' win probability against Drake has held at 54% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
S Illinois' win probability against Drake has held at 60% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
S Illinois' win probability against Drake has held at 67% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.