Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Iowa 63%, Creighton 37% at Creighton.
Iowa's win probability against Creighton has swung between 63% and 68% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 63% now.
Iowa's win probability against Creighton has held at 70% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Iowa's win probability against Creighton has held at 76% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.