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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Virginia 65%, California 35% at California.
Virginia's win probability against California is trending down — from 68% to 65% over the last 6 updates.
Virginia's win probability against California is trending down — from 75% to 72% over the last 6 updates.
Virginia's win probability against California has swung between 78% and 83% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 78% now.