Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Iowa St 66%, Baylor 34% at Baylor.
Iowa St's win probability against Baylor is trending down — from 69% to 66% over the last 6 updates.
Iowa St's win probability against Baylor is trending down — from 75% to 72% over the last 6 updates.
Iowa St's win probability against Baylor has held at 78% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.