Muhlenberg edges Wilkes 29-25 in projection for tight non-conference test

Versus projects a four-point game between Muhlenberg and Wilkes, with the Mules taking it 29-25 and winning the simulation 59 percent of the time. That is about as close as the model gets, and it reflects two profiles that pull in opposite directions.

Wilkes arrives unbeaten at 1-0 and carries a strong A- overall grade, with a B+ defense and B offense. The Colonels sit 43rd in Division III and have posted a winning record for three straight seasons, and they rank second in the Landmark Conference. The catch is schedule strength, where Wilkes checks in at 115th in D3, the softest number in this matchup.

Muhlenberg, at 1-1, grades out even higher overall with an A and an A- offense, and its 47th-ranked schedule is far tougher than what Wilkes has faced. The Mules have cooled off lately, sliding from 16th to 31st in the Division III rankings this season, but their offensive rank of 52 and a favorable venue give Versus enough to lean their way.

This is a non-conference game for both sides, since Wilkes plays in the Landmark and Muhlenberg in the Centennial, so neither team's conference standing is affected by the outcome.