Louisville favored over higher-ranked SMU as home field tips a near-even game

Versus makes Louisville the projected winner here, 30-29, even though SMU sits 18 spots above the Cardinals in the FBS ranks at No. 16 to No. 34. The gap owes something to Louisville's offense, which grades out at an A and ranks 17th in FBS, four spots better than SMU's own 21st-ranked attack, and something to the fact that this one is being played at Louisville. With the projection this tight, that combination is enough to tip a coin-flip game the home team's way.

SMU arrives unbeaten at 2-0 and rated the more complete team overall, graded A to Louisville's A-, with an A- defense that ranks 22nd against a Louisville defense graded B+ and ranked 35th. The Mustangs are also one of just 19 FBS teams ranked in the Versus top 25 on both sides of the ball, and they have not posted a losing season in eight years running. Their most lopsided win in over two seasons came in their last outing, a 56-10 result.

Louisville is 1-1 and has actually slipped 11 spots in the Versus rankings this season, from 23rd down to 34th, but its own most recent game was just as one-sided, a 59-13 win. This is a conference game inside the Atlantic Coast Conference, so it counts in the standings for both sides, and with the win probabilities sitting at 52 percent for Louisville against 48 for SMU, Versus is not treating either side as a clear favorite so much as giving the extra point at home to the team ranked lower everywhere else.