North Carolina Wesleyan edges Southern Virginia in a true coin flip

Versus splits this one about as evenly as its model allows, giving North Carolina Wesleyan a 52 percent chance and a 27-26 edge in a projection that comes down to a single point. That margin lines up with a series that is itself dead level at 4-4 across eight meetings since 2012, and with rankings that sit close together, Southern Virginia at No. 165 in Division III and North Carolina Wesleyan at No. 179.

The deciding factor may be where this kicks off. Both teams score noticeably better at home than on the road this season, which cuts in Southern Virginia's favor since the Knights host. North Carolina Wesleyan does carry momentum, having broken a four-game skid with a 45-3 win over Methodist, and no opponent has beaten the Battling Bishops by more than 14 points all season.

Southern Virginia enters off its own notable result, a first-ever win over Belhaven in Versus's records, a team that ranked 10 spots ahead of the Knights in Division III. Both programs sit at 3-4, and the game counts in the USA South Conference standings, where either side could use the separation a win here would provide.