South Dakota State leans on history and defense to hold off South Dakota

South Dakota State has owned this series lately, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings and leading 10-3 since 2012, and Versus expects more of the same Saturday. The Jackrabbits are favored 31-25 at home, with a 64 percent win probability, as the Missouri Valley matchup counts fully in the conference standings.

South Dakota arrives with the stronger overall profile on paper, graded A+ across the board and sitting 7th in FCS with a 7-2 record built on the No. 2 offense in the division. The Coyotes have also posted a winning season in four straight years, a run that speaks to the consistency behind this trip.

But South Dakota State counters with its own streak, 15 consecutive winning seasons, and a defense ranked 1st in FCS to go with the No. 2 overall power ranking. The Jackrabbits briefly reached No. 1 in the Versus FCS rankings back in Week 7 before settling at 9th, and that defensive edge is the difference Versus sees tipping a projected six-point margin in their favor.