St Francis IN's surge says more than Defiance's record does

A year ago this pairing ended in a three-point game, and the records alone, Defiance at 3-5 and St Francis IN at 5-3, suggest another tight one is possible. The current form says otherwise. St Francis IN has outscored its last five opponents by a wide margin while running off five straight wins, and Versus has the Cougars 30 spots ahead of Defiance in the NAIA rankings at No. 27 to No. 57.

Defiance has been trending the opposite direction, outscored by an average of 29 points over its own last five games and going 1-4 in that span after climbing as high as No. 39 earlier this season. The Yellow Jackets do carry a win over a ranked St Xavier team and a strength of schedule rank of 21, well ahead of St Francis IN's 36, but a B+ overall grade and a B defense give the Cougars the clearer edge across the board, including a defensive rank of 35 compared to Defiance's 76.

This is a Mid-States Football Association game and it counts in the conference standings. Versus projects St Francis IN to win 42-17, giving the Cougars a 92 percent chance to take it at home.