Angelo State's record hides a strong team vs Texas-Permian Basin

A 3-5 record does not tell the whole story for Angelo State. Versus has the Rams with a power rank of 53, better than Texas-Permian Basin's 60, and credits that mostly to schedule strength: Angelo State's strength of schedule rank of 42 dwarfs the Falcons' 94, meaning the losses have mostly come against tougher competition than Texas-Permian Basin has faced on its way to five wins.

The grades back that up. Angelo State carries a B+ defense and a B- offense for an overall B-, while Texas-Permian Basin is a steadier B across the board. Angelo State has gone 1-3 in one-score games this season, which explains how a team graded this well sits at 3-5 and 78th among Division II teams, 15 spots behind Texas-Permian Basin's 63rd.

Texas-Permian Basin arrives having fallen 46 spots in the Division II rankings since the season began, even with a win over No. 41 Northeastern St OK and a fifth straight season on pace for a winning record.

Angelo State has won the series 7-2 since 2016 and taken 7 of the last 9 meetings, but this one counts in the Lone Star Conference standings for both teams. Versus projects Texas-Permian Basin to win at home, 26-25, giving the Falcons a 54 percent chance in a game the model rates as close as the one-point margin suggests.